2008 Woodie Awards
1st Issue) There is no objectivity
I’ve been slaving away trying to write objectively somehow about the 2008 World Series. And, for the readers out there, I’m sorry, I can’t do it. Not after 15 years since the last appearance. Not after 25 years without a single championship parade. Not after 100 seasons of heartbreak between the Flyers, Sixers, Eagles, and Phillies. Philadelphia right now is bleeding Phils’ red. And the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies have already entered the town’s sports history as legends.
Being a Philadelphia sports fan is an experience unto itself. For one, you root for all 4 teams, and are fairly knowledgeable about each of the major sports in America. For another, there’s the reputation, which I’ll try to explain, at least somewhat. Yes, it’s deserved, we’re an unfriendly bunch, to certain groups of fans (yes, I’m talking to you, Mets, Cowboys, Knicks, and Devils fans). Really, if you’re an LA Angels fan, or an Orioles fan, we’re usually pretty nice to you.
But most of the negative stories come from Eagles fans. Yes they snowballed Santa Claus. Yes, they cheered when Michael Irvin was carted off the field with a neck injury. Yes, a criminal court has been built into the stadium to deal with the rowdiest knuckleheads (what would you do after a fan fires a flare gun at the opposing team’s bench? true story). About the only one I can defend is the snowballing incident, which we’re proud of by the way. Team’s losing 48-0 on the last game of the season to the COWBOYS of all things, management decides not to clean the seats after a snow storm, the record for the year is 2-14, and out comes this drunken Santa Claus in the dirtiest costume you’ve ever seen? What would you do?
Phillies fans are a calmer bunch. Alright, we boo. So does every city in the Northeast. But you’re talking about a group that has remained faithful through a 126 year history with only 1 championship in 1980, only 6 World Series appearances (counting 2008), and the most losses in sports. It’s not easy. We’re one of the founding clubs in the National League, older than all of the American League teams, and even the Cubs have more World Series titles than us, at 2 to 1. But we keep coming, year after year, and except for 1 magical year, our hearts get ripped out of our chests. And for those Orioles fans out there, we know what you’re going through. We’ve had to deal with the same nonsense in the 20’s, 30’s, 40’s, 60’s, late 80’s and 90’s except that 1 year, 1993. Bad ownership, no hope, the same problems year in year out.
So I’m doing something I haven’t done once in my life: enjoying the ride. I want to win this series bad, and I’m pulling for the team harder than I ever have before. We’ll see what happens. The Phils are already one game up as of this writing, so this is a little late, but here’s the World Series breakdown as BallPhreak sees it.
2nd Issue) Strengths and Weaknesses of the Contenders
We start by examining the 4 factors of a team: Starting Pitching, Bullpen, Offense, and Defense.
Starting Pitching: Here the Rays have a clear edge, though the Phillies do have a very good staff headed by the best starting pitcher in the Series, Cole Hamels. However, the Rays simply have more depth. Tampa’s 3 and 4 starters are superior to the Phillies’ men in most stats across the board. Matt Garza is a legitimate top of the rotation starter who will face Jamie Moyer, the 45-year-old lefty who hasn’t pitched well yet in the playoffs. Andy Sonnanstine, the Rays number 4, has also been very good. James Shields is also a better pitcher than Brett Myers, although not by the same margin that Garza outclasses Moyer. Still, the Rays will have to send Garza and Sonnanstine to the mound in Philadelphia, and they have a losing record away from home.
Bullpen: The edge here goes to Philadelphia, who’s back end has been completely unhittable and lights out in September and in the playoffs. Between Madson, Romero, and Lidge, the Phillies shut teams down in the 8th and 9th innings. Tampa’s in real trouble if they’re behind late. The Rays also have a very, very good ‘pen, but it lacks the completely dominant closer. David Price is preferable as a starting pitcher, not closer, and he’s also a rookie. Any manager, even the insane ones, know you avoid putting guys like that in late inning situations, although Price’s stuff is so good it might not matter. Still, between Balfour, Miller, and Howell, the Rays can also boast a formidable relief crew. Long story short: Philly gets the edge because of Lidge.
Offense: This is an age-old conundrum: what’s more important, power or speed? Both lineups are balanced and have both, but Philly has more pop and Tampa Bay is faster. The Rays have 1 40HR threat in Carlos Pena and a 30HR threat in Evan Longoria; the remaining pop is provided by B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford. 2-5 is the danger zone for Tampa: shut them down and they don’t score. The remainder of the group, Akinori Iwamura, Ben Zobrist, et. al, hit for average and are fast, very fast. The aggressive running game is what makes the lineup so good. This is a tough, balanced attack for Tampa. But Philly’s is slightly better. Between Rollins, Utley, Werth, Howard, Burrell, Victorino, and Dobbs/Feliz, Philadelphia has a set of 7 batters who will take a pitcher deep if he makes a mistake, and Rollins, Utley, Werth, and Victorino are all very fast runners. It’s another tough, balanced, fast offensive attack, but it’s got more power, and Matt Stairs, Chris Coste, and Geoff Jenkins are all power threats off the bench (though they don’t hit for average well). Edge Philadelphia.
Defense: Both teams are very good defensively, but Tampa gets the edge because they don’t have any holes on the field. The outfield is all very quick and the infield is surehanded. Philadelphia is very good defensively at 3B with Feliz, and up the middle with Rollins, Utley, and Victorino in center (Werth is also a very good defensive RF). The problem is Pat Burrell who has a good arm but glacial speed, and Ryan Howard, who has a bad glove. These are 2 holes in the Phillies defense. Manager Charlie Manuel nearly always substitutes a defensive replacement for Burrell in late innings.
3rd Issue: The Prediction:
I’ve already explained why I can’t be unbiased, and there’s the little matter that the Phillies have already taken 1 game. Still, to have a chance the Phils had to take the 1st game with Cole Hamels on the mound. Truthfully, I think they’ll drop games 2 and 3, grab games 4 and 5, then it’s anybodies guess. But I gotta back my hometown team. Phillies in 6.
Well, that was an interesting first round. If any of you filled out brackets based on my predictions, I’ve made quite a fool of myself.
1st issue) Series Recaps
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs. Oy. Talk about epic collapses. The team with the best record in the NL was unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs. Remember what I mentioned last post, about an uncharacteristic power outage hapenning in the Windy City? Well, that’s exactly what happened. The Dodgers revealed the Cubs only weakness: no power bats from the left side. LA’s pitching was phenomenal, thoroughly bamboozling a once potent Cubs lineup, and plenty of offense was provided by Manny and the Boys (that’s my new nickname for the Dodgers lineup). But this wasn’t just the Dodgers playing well. The Cubs did their best impression of Little League ballclub with 4 errors, one by every infielder, in Game 2, and their pitching failed them exactly when it was needed most. This was a sloppy, sloppy performance by the North Siders. Let me be crystal clear here: Chicago deserved to be swept, curse or no curse. LA looks pretty scary right now. The lineup still lacks homerun power compared to the other playoff teams, but the team does hit for average well, plays great defense, and has arguably the best pitching staff you’ve never heard about. They’ll be tough to beat, but then, any of the remaining 4 teams has a decent shot.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies. The one call I got right, though the reasons were different. Unexpectedly, the Brew Crew’s starting pitching proved to be their Achilles heel, not the bullpen, which only gave up 1 run to the Fightin’ Phils. Milwaukee’s bats weren’t much help either, being mostly shut down by the Phillies pitching staff, who only gave up 9 runs over 4 games, 4 of them in Game 3. 9 runs over 4 games isn’t very good, although the Brew Crew probably had the weakest offense of all the playoff teams. Heck, they were the weakest of any of the teams. Milwaukee fielded an above average group, but really they rode to the playoffs on the back of C.C. Sabathia, and once he faltered in Game 2, they were done. The Phils don’t have much to crow about on offense either. Except for a pair of solo home runs in Game 4 all of Philadelphia’s offense came in just 1 inning each game. That’s not gonna cut it. They also got by without Ryan Howard or Chase Utley hitting (even Utley’s game winning RBI double in Game 1 was a lucky break, as centerfielder Mike Cameron badly misplayed a line drive). Philly’s pitching isn’t quite as good as LA’s although the bullpen is slightly better. The team’s going to have to hit if it wants to advance.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox. This was probably my biggest flub. Things I didn’t count on happening: 1) Francisco Rodriguez turning in the worst series performance of his career; 2) No one around the Angels 3-4-5 batters hitting; 3) The Angels starters being beat by the Boston starters. This is a case where the better team didn’t win. LA had the deeper staff and a pretty good lineup. Boston shut them down, mainly on the phenomenal pitching of Jon Lester, who’s Boston’s real ace, not Josh Beckett. Still, 2 of these losses can be laid at the feet of the Angels’ bullpen, which became suspect at the worst possible time. Rodriguez blew game 2 when the Angels tied it then nearly did the same in Game 3, escaping a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the 9th. Scott Shields, their setup man, allowed the series winning hit in Game 4. The Angels offense should also be taken to task. No one around Guerrero, Teixiera, or Hunter hit the ball well, and those 3 kept hitting singles. Bottom line, LA needs more offense. They need a real leadoff man to hit in front of the big 3. Rodriguez probably cost himself a few million on his upcoming payday as well.
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays. Guess the name change really matters. The Rays simply outplayed Chicago in every game except Game 3, when their starter Matt Garza gave up a big inning to put the Sox in front. Timely hitting, excellent pitching, the White Sox were simply overmatched early on, having to lead with Javier Vasquez and Mark Buerhle, who simply couldn’t go toe to toe with James Shields and Scott Kazmir. This is why rest is so important. Had the Sox not gone through their 2-8 losing stretch they could have rested their starters for 2 or more days, which would have meant Jon Danks starting Game 1 in Tampa. It would have been a much different series. Judging by their performances the Sox may still have lost, as Floyd and Vasquez would have gone to the mound at least once. Instead, Chicago had to send middle-of-the-rotation starters to the mound and found themselves in an 0-2 hole. Tampa Bay has to be a little worried by Garza’s outing against Chicago. Right now, Boston’s front 3 is better than Tampa’s front 3. Garza needs to do better against the Red Sox. They won’t win unless he picks it up.
2nd issue) The NLCS
NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies. Most experts predict an LA win in 7. Here’s the problem: you have 2 hot teams colliding in the playoffs. Usually when experts predict a series to go the distance it’s because the teams are evenly matched. That’s certainly the case here. The Phillies have a slightly better offense, mainly because they have more power (the Dodgers tend to hit for average more though). LA has slightly better pitching; the Phils get the edge in the bullpen but LA has a deeper starting rotation. And, just to make things more chaotic, the Dodgers swept the Phillies in LA and the Phillies swept the Dodgers in Philadelphia, both series occuring in August.
This is a different Dodgers team with Rafael Furcal in the lineup. He’s LA’s answer to Jimmy Rollins, just as the Phillies answer Manny Ramirez with Ryan Howard. Without Furcal, Philadelphia would have the clear edge offensively. Why hasn’t he been mentioned along with Ramirez? Furcal’s been out since May with an injury, and he only recently returned. Before getting hurt the Dodgers shortstop was tearing the cover off the ball though, and it seems he’s returned 100% healthy. These are the 2 players to watch in the Dodgers lineup: as they go, so goes the offense.
In contrast, one has to keep an eye on Phillies pitchers Brett Myers and Joe Blanton. If Myers is his 2nd half self, after the stint in the minors, the Phillies have every chance of winning this series. Myers was phenomenal during the stretch from August to early September, posting a sub-2.00 ERA with 9 wins, as good as C. C. Sabathia. Blanton was great for the team in Game 4 of the NLDS, giving up only 1 run in 6 strong innings. If he continues that form, the Phillies throw 4 great starters at the Dodgers, not 3.
My incredibly biased prediction: Phillies in 6. Homefield advantage give the Phillies an early lead in the series, and they take 1 game at LA before returning home for Game 6.
3rd Issue) The ALCS
Boy does Boston look tough now, but I think that’s because everyone still underestimates this Tampa team. Everyone in baseball knows the Red Sox, what they’re capable of, but more importantly, their weaknesses. And just looking at the numbers, Tampa Bay has an advantage in starting pitching. James Shields is the most underrated number 2 in the American League, and his statline compares very favorably with Dice-K Matsuzaka. Yes, Dice-K has more wins and a lower ERA. That’s not how you compare pitchers. The 2 most important stats are WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched) and the K/BB ration (Strikeout/Walk ration). Wins are really a function of the team, while ERA can fluctuate. Dice-K’s WHIP is 1.32, good for a number 3 but usually translating to an ERA of about 4 (his ERA is low because he’s only given up 12 HR). Shields’ WHIP is 1.15, a number usually seen for aces. The K/BB ratio is also 4:1 for Shields and 1.64/1 for Dice-K. Tampa has the edge in Game 1, and Scott Kazmir is a match for any pitcher the Red Sox can throw up there. Tampa also has a good number 4 in Andy Sonnanstine, while the Sox will have to counter with Wakefield, who pitched poorly down the stretch. That’s Game 1 and 4 edge for Tampa, who has home field advantage, and a draw in Game 2 with Kazmir.
Boston has a better bullpen, mainly because of Jonathan Papelbon (Tampa’s closer, Troy Percival, has pitched well but is hurt; they’ve had to improvise). You have to give the Sox the edge here, though it’s not as big as it might appear on paper. The Rays’ bullpen has been lights out in general, something they demonstrated against the White Sox. The back end is nothing to laugh at, with numbers every bit as good as Boston’s. Overall then, the Rays have a slight edge in pitching.
Offensively it’s not much of a debate. Tampa’s offense is good, centered around Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria, who bat behind Akinori Iwamura and BJ Upton. Dioner Navarro is probably the best hitting catcher still playing in October. But it’s simply outclassed by Boston. Ortiz is the premier lefty power hitter in the AL, and Kevin Youkilis is the best pure hitter still playing. Add Jason Bay, Dustin Pedroia, and J.D. Drew to the mix and the Red Sox simply have a better offense (in fact they scored about 70 more runs over the course of the season than the Rays).
So why then, with only a slight advantage to the Rays in pitching and a clear advantage offensively, am I holding off giving the definitive edge to the Sox? The answer is the road record. Both teams have losing records on the road and play much, much better at home. And who has home field advantage? The Tampa Bay Rays. Granted their the younger team, but they showed a lot of skill in their dismantling of the veteran White Sox. Simply put, this series is going to come down to the first team to win an away game. Since I think both will falter in their opponents’ respective homes, I predict Rays in 7.
1st Issue) New York learns the meaning of Dejavu…
When you’re wrong, you’re wrong. The Mets have been knocked out of the playoffs, on the final day of the season, by the Florida Marlins. Again. This followed a 7-10 performance to end the season, which included losing 6 out of 9 against the Cubs, Braves, and Marlins (ironically, they played best against the Cubs, going 2-2). And the main culprit? The bullpen, which blew 4 saves in the entire stretch. Again.
Now I could say my heart goes out to Muts Mets fans, but you’d all know I’d be lying, since I root for the Phillies. I could also go into a lengthy post about why the team fell short in September for the second year in a row, but Baseball commentators around the web are already dissecting the 2008 New York Mess. Suffice it to say, the Mets problems were twofold: First and foremost an overrated bullpen, and second, lack of depth. The Mets pen was a collection of lefty or righty specialists who had no business closing games, and no one stepped up when Billy Wagner went down with an injury. The team’s corner outfield situation was also a problem. LF Moises Alou went down for the season early, Ryan Church was lost for months with a concussion, Fernando Tatis played well but went down for the season in September, and the team was reduced to starting a Triple-A rookie who fortunately played his heart out for them. Pedro’s clearly not recovered from his injury, John Maine, who filled in admirably behind Santana, also was lost for late August and September, and the team was stuck starting both Santana and Oliver Perez on short rest in the final 2 games of the season. A combination of bad luck and bad decision making by the GM Omar Minaya doomed this team. And things won’t be much better next year.
But the Mets fall has overshadowed the play of the White Sox, who up until their series with the Twins looked set to win the AL Central. Then they were swept by Minnesota in the middle of a 2-8 stretch and found themselves a half game back; the team needed to beat the Tigers in Detroit to force a 1-game playoff for the division at the Twins stadium, which they won in a nailbiter of the phenomenal pitching of John Danks and a solo homerun by Gentleman Jim Thome. That means no rest between now and Wednesday, when playoffs begin. With the way the team’s played lately, I wouldn’t count on them. But speaking of playoffs…
2nd issue) The NL Playoffs
The Matchups: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs; Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies.
In the Dodgers/Cubs series, everyone’s going to favor Chicago, including myself, mainly because the team has no real weakness. The Dodgers offense is much improved but centered around Manny Ramirez; shut him down, and the Dodgers won’t score runs. Chicago has the best offense in the NL. LA’s pitching is very good, almost to the equal of Chicago’s, but the Cubs have a better rotation and will thrown Dempster, Zambrano, and Harden at the LA lineup. The Dodgers will counter with Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda, another good front 3. The difference between the two groups is Zambrano. He hasn’t pitched well since he’s thrown a no-hitter against Houston. If he falters, this series will go to Game 5 and it will be anyone’s game.
Chances are the Cubs will take Game 1. Ryan Dempster has been a monster on the mound in Wrigley, and he’s got the ball for Game 1 against Derek Lowe for LA. Lowe’s a big game pitcher, but he may find himself overmatched against the Cubs, who will send Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alphonso Soriano, Giovanny Soto, and Ryan Theriot to the plate. Barring an offensive meltdown of epic proportions, and we are talking about the Cubs here, I don’t see how they fail to get by the Dodgers. Chicago is the better team offensively and it’s a wash with pitching.
The difference is reversed in the other matchup; Brewers/Phillies. Here there isn’t much daylight between the 2 offenses, though Philly at least has a bona fide leadoff man and a better bottom order. However, outside of C.C. Sabathia the Brewers have inconsistent Dave Bush and mediocre Jeff Suppan, pitchers who do not match up well with Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, or Jamie Moyer. Although the Brew Crew is now starting Yovani Gallardo, the team’s number 2 behind Sheets before an injury in May cut his season short, you still have to give the Phillies the edge in Game 1 with Hamels on the mound. Myers was lights out in August and early September and could match Sabathia pitch for pitch, and Moyer has shown once again why he is a big game pitcher. But the real edge for the Phillies is their bullpen, one of the best and deepest in baseball. The Brewers have Solomon Torres, a good closer, but he’s outclassed by the Perfect in 2008 Brad Lidge. The Brew Crew has nobody in front of Torres either for middle relief, so if the starters get in trouble, Milwaukee’s in for a long game. Phillies in 4.
3rd issue) The AL Playoffs
The Matchups: Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays; Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox.
Chicago’s limped into the playoffs on the back of 2 wins, 1 a divisional playoff. Now they’ve got to send their pitchers to the mound on short rest against a rested Tampa Bay team. The Rays are new to the playoffs, having won a division title for the first time in their history, while the White Sox have plenty of veterans who have been in the playoffs, like Thome, or who have won it all, like Paul Konerko and Jon Garland. Experience matters, but the Rays have a better offense. One has to favor the Rays in this matchup based on that and the fact that Tampa Bay could relax last week. However, I think the newness of October will get to Tampa a bit, and it’ll be close, especially if Chicago’s starting pitching throws as well on the mound as they did against Detroit and Minnesota. Tampa Bay in 5.
The other series is a much easier call. For the record, I don’t hate the Red Sox. The team has never bothered me (though the fans continue to become progressively bigger irritants as time passes). In 2004 and 2007, the Angels were bounced from the playoffs from the Sox, but this is a different LA team. Unlike previous years, LA has a core which can pound the ball, when before they’d have to manufacture runs. The heart of LA’s lineup, Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, and Mark Teixeira matches up very well with David Ortiz, Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis. However, the bottom of the order clearly favors Boston with J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell. The Angels have a superior rotation however, and a lights out bullpen that is arguably the best in the AL (Anaheim gets the edge because Boston’s middle relief isn’t as good). Usually superior pitching wins over superior offense, and the Red Sox come into the series a little banged up with both Mike Lowell and ace Josh Beckett suffering from oblique strains (which can linger for a few weeks). If Beckett is still hurt, the Sox don’t have a prayer. Angels in 4.
Since I’ve done the Orioles already, I think it’s only fair to take a look at the Nationals…
…and try to stop continuously laughing.
Boy oh boy is this a bad team. The Mariners are a train wreck, but there’s a couple of signs of hope in Ichiro and Hernandez. The Nats? Ugh. This one’s going to be tough.
1st issue) What went wrong
The short answer is everything. The long answer is: the Nats didn’t have enough starting pitching at the outset to compete, which quickly taxed a decent bullpen that rapidly became subpar due to injuries, and the lineup was banged up so badly they single handedly kept DC’s hospital system in business.
Ok, that’s not entirely fair. The Nats do have a few decent players in the field, and a couple of decent pitchers. The problem is none of these men are stars, in any sense of the word. At best they’re middle of the road in terms of talent. Elijah Dukes is having a very good half season, Lastings Milledge has played well, Ryan Zimmerman is a consistent 3B, and the best hitter in the Nationals lineup. Tim Redding, John Lannan, and Odalis Perez are all having decent seasons on the mound, though none of them would qualify as a staff ace.
But injuries have afflicted the team severely. No one in the lineup has started over 140 games because everyone’s missed time. In the case of Zimmerman, it amounts to 50 games, or 2 months. Starting 1B Dmitri Young, who resurrected his career in DC a couple of years ago, went down for the season early. Chad Cordero, the Nationals closer the past few years, suffered the same fate. Without him, the bullpen wasn’t nearly as effective and now it’s been dismantled by trade. No starter will cross 200 innings pitched, though Redding will break 180.
Looking at the team, you have to wonder how they’ve managed to lose only 98 games so far. They’re outclassed in every aspect of the game: offense, pitching, defense. This is going to be a tough nut to crack, particularly since the Nationals are a small market team, meaning they don’t have the financial resources of the Orioles (so you can forget big free agent signings).
2nd issue) What can be done quickly
I have to split short term (next season) possibilities and long term (3+ seasons away). Short term, the Nats won’t be competitive in 2009, probably even 2010. The team is just too poor, and has the Mets, Phillies, and a rising Marlins team to contend with. Sorry DC fans. The good news is both Milledge and Dukes seem decent, and its best for the team to continue to let them develop. Outfield isn’t as much a priority as the rest of the team.
However, because the Nats are a small market, they have to play what I call the “trade-bait” game. Washington cannot sign big talent to big contracts, it can’t afford more than 1 or 2 hefty contracts of 10 million or more. So you can sign a decent player to a cheap, 1/2 year contract and hope he has a good year. If he does, you turn him into trade bait. A contender looks at your batter/pitcher, sees he’s under contract for the end of the following season at the most, and offers you prospects in exchange. It’s a common tactic with stars about to leave the team, just look at C.C. Sabathia and the haul the Indians netted in trade. The Nats would benefit from doing the same, particularly if they get pitching prospects in return.
“Trade-bait” gets you only so far of course. For one, it’s unlikely the team will net a future superstar in such a trade (and if they do, kudos to them), moreover, they’d have to do this repeatedly. It’s also not practical if your team has holes everywhere, like the Nats. Just looking at the fielders, the team needs an upgrade at 1st, 2nd, catcher, and center field, all positions that are currently occupied by…below average talent (I’m forcing myself to be nice in this post). There’s really not much talent available at 2B, as the top 3 are Ray Durham, David Eckstein, and Orlando Hudson. Hudson is hurt, Eckstein and Durham are both old. Still, it may be worthwhile to sign one under the “trade-bait” rules, just don’t expect these guys to be part of the future. Durham’s probably the best bet since he still has 20HR power.
1B has the previously mentioned Sean Casey, who wouldn’t be as good a fit here since he lacks power and the Nats desperately need pop. Believe it or not, Kevin Millar may be a decent signing for them if they get him for under 7 mil/ year (more like 4) and again, use him in a trade later. Catcher is a lost cause, but center offers some intriguing options in Corey Patterson, Rocco Baldelli, Mark Kotsay and Scott Podsednik. Baldelli and Podsednik both have injury histories and have missed significant time the past 2 seasons. Patterson is ideally a bench player with fast wheels, so as a starter he’s a bad pickup. Kotsay’s probably the best of the bunch. All 4 have speed, all 4 play good defense. Kotsay’s statline suggests he’s the best hitter of the bunch, with a career .281 AVG and .337 OBP. His numbers have fallen off as a bench player, but he’s 32 years old, and a veteran of the Oakland Athletics during their playoff runs a few years back. Since he’s riding Boston’s bench right now, he probably would come cheap, and would be the Nats best bet for a free agent signing.
One could probably get Kotsay and Durham for a combined 10 million, depending upon how the market goes. Of course, that still leaves pitching. Boy oh boy. As I said, the Nats are a small market team right now. They won’t increase payroll 30 million. I’d imagine if they thought highly of the players they’d go to 15, 20 at the most. On second thought, forget Durham. He’ll be too expensive. What’s desperately needed is starting pitching, but most of what will be available will be marginal talent for the Nats. However, a good place to start would be Kris Benson, who may finally be healthy after shoulder surgery in 2007. He’d be worth a flyer, maybe a 2 year contract for a combined 4-6 million, especially if he pitches well and can be turned into trade bait. Freddy Garcia falls under the same “injured” heading, could be worth a one year, cheap deal if he can pitch okay. Other cheap possibilities: Sidney Ponson, Glendon Rusch, Kip Wells, Josh Fogg. All could come cheap.
You’ve probably picked up a theme here. The only pitchers the Nats could sign would be marginal talent like Fogg, who should never pitch out the number 5 spot in a rotation, or a hurt pitcher looking for a second chance. It’s here that scouting is really important. I don’t know how good the Nationals’ scouts are, but I think the better route is too go after Garcia or Benson, hoping they a) don’t get hurt and b) pitch well enough to be trade bait. No ace pitcher is going to want to pitch for the Nationals, not unless they offer the moon, which they can’t. That means using any starter they sign as trade bait, again.
3rd Issue) Long Term plans
Simply put, Washington has to draft well. That’s the only way they’ll get back into contention. But this offseason, they should go after Mark Kotsay, Kris Benson or Freddy Garcia, and Ray Durham if they can get him cheap. They shouldn’t spend more than 15 million on the 3 players, that’s the price limit.
Washington’s draft focus should be on quality starting pitching. They have to bet that both Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge develop well into a good pair of corner outfielders, and Ryan Zimmermann decides to stay. That gives them a solid core of 3 good hitters to build a lineup around. But this team will never have the payroll to create a lineup with significant firepower. Their best bats will eventually leave via free agency. This could help the team, as baseball compensates teams which lose free agents with draft picks in between rounds. Oakland consistently makes use of this system to field a competitive team on the cheap.
And that’s the heart of it. A small market team can only compete with the big boys if they develop a great staff. Washington’s got to have arms, it’s that simple. I’m not a scout, so I can’t tell you who’s out there right now for the team, but we’d better hope they make the right picks. The Nats are a team which cannot afford to waste a year on a bad 1st round pick.
I’d thought I’d cover the Orioles in this post, specifically what the team needs in the offseason. First I should point out that the O’s played better in the first half, much better than their talent level. As I predicted though things fell apart after the All-Star break.
1st Issue) What’s wrong
The Orioles strength through July was the bullpen and a better than expected offense. The problem is the team had neither the starting pitching, bullpen depth, or consistent offense to compete with any other team in the AL East, except perhaps the Blue Jays, whose lineup was devastated by injuries this year.
The most pressing problem with this team has been starting pitching. The rotation, to paraphrase a line I’ve used to describe the Astros previously, consists of Guthrie, Cabrera, and a black hole. There’s no one I’d feel comfortable handing the ball to. Even Cabrera is not a great pitcher; he really belongs in the 4 or 5 spot. He’s the classic story of a kid with great stuff but little control.
Why do I harp on this? The reason the bullpen has fallen apart in the last month and a half is because it’s burned out. The O’s manager has to consistently bring in relievers in the 5 or 6th innings, and when was the last time a starter stayed in the game until the 8th or 9th innings? No one in the rotation is a horse. This is the team’s most pressing need, and they don’t have the arms in the farm system to address it from within. That means a free agent signing, preferably 2.
The offense isn’t perfect either. Although it’s centered around Aubrey Huff, who’s returning to 2003-2004 form, both first base and shortstop are a problem. One can do much better than Kevin Millar’s .725 OPS at first base, entirely too low for that position. Alex Cintron is also ideally a bench player, not a starting shortstop. This offense is good, but it can’t stand up to the firepower that Boston, New York, or Tampa Bay brings, mainly because the bottom of the order is an offensive black hole. This needs to be fixed.
The bullpen should get a minor overhaul too. George Sherill is a setup man by trade, but I think he’s earned the right to hold on to the closer spot next year. The middle relief corps should be strenghthened though, particularly by bringing in a setup man who can step in as closer should Sherill go down with an injury again.
2nd issue) How to fix it
Rome wasn’t built in a day after all. If the O’s want to get their hands on an ace through free agency, they’ll have to look competitive. That means a winning record or close to winning record next year.
2009’s starting pitching free agents are going to be headed by 2 big names: C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. 3 words for the Orioles: Forget About Them. Any bid the O’s put down on Sabathia is going to be outdone by the Yankees or Red Sox. Ben Sheets, the consolation prize for the loser, is a house of cards. Take it from a National League watcher, the man is hurt every year. He’s missed significant time, and he’s even gone down again late this year (he’s got “tearing elbow pain” and had to leave his last start after only 2 innings of work). I am very wary of pitchers with injury histories; big contracts with these guys never pan out. Just look at the Yankees and Carl Pavano for a prime example.
There’s also a collection of very old arms who will be free agents as well. If you can get them cheap, it makes sense, particularly since having and old experienced hand well help you develop your young arms. Jaime Moyer’s having a very good year with the Phillies and could be a good pickup, as would Greg Maddux or Randy Johnson, if they’re signed for 1/2 years at under 8 million apiece. But don’t expect these 3 to be anything other than 4 or 5 hole starters. And avoid John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, and Orlando Hernandez, all of whom have had season ending injuries.
That’s one pitcher though, and with a rotation as patchwork as this, you need another arm. There is a coterie of 28-32 year olds coming off good years, though they’ll be in high demand probably. Oliver and Odalis Perez, Kyle Lohse, and Jon Garland. Odalis Perez and Lohse are probably the higher risk signings of the 2, as both are having career years. Oliver Perez will be heavily sought by the Mets. Jon Garland will also get at least 12 million a year in a contract. If they can, the Orioles should try to land Garland or Oliver, but it’ll be a hefty price tag. Both will want 4 year contracts at least, between 35-45 million total as well. Garland is the best bet, as he’s thrown over 200 innings for the past 3 years and is the most consistent, exactly the kind of horse the Orioles desperately need. Lohse is the best alternative if you’re injury averse, though Oliver Perez, frankly, has looked very sharp. Both Perez’s have injury histories and inconsistent pitching performances though.
Best case scenario is the O’s sign Garland and land Moyer or Johnson. That’s a rotation of Guthrie, Garland, Cabrera, Moyer/Johnson, with the 5th to be selected in spring training. Not bad. Not up to the Red Sox or Rays, but a definite improvement.
The offense shouldn’t be tinkered with too much, but either Millar or the shortstop needs to be replaced. Let’s assume we’re working on a budget, say 25 million to spend, maybe 30 if we’re lucky. Most of that will be tied up signing the 2 pitchers above. That leaves perhaps 5-10 million for the rest of the team. The Outfield should be set with Markakis, Jones, and Scott (frankly, this is an above average group and I wouldn’t touch it), Roberts is good at second, and Mora’s having a good year at third. So bringing in a DH/OF player like Milton Bradley or Pat Burrell makes very little sense. Orlando Cabrera is a decent hitting shortstop but will probably have a price tag between 7-9 million in the offseason as he’s the best SS available. Eckstein is a better budget pickup, though he’s getting old at 34 years.
The problem is the free agents at first base this year are too pricey or not worth the time. The top 3 are Mark Teixeira, who is going to command a bushel, Carlos Delgado, assuming the one in a trillion chance the Mets don’t pick up his extension, or Jason Giambi. Then you have Millar (no thanks), Daryle Ward (hah!), Eric Hinske, a platoon player if there ever was one, and Nomar Garciaparra, the hospital visit waiting to happen.
But there is one player who makes a lot of sense for this team: Sean Casey. Casey is very well liked around baseball, he’s a natural team leader, and he routinely hits around .300 with and OBP close to .400. His power numbers are non-existent, but between Markakis, Scott, Huff, and Mora, the O’s have decent pop. Casey is exactly the kind of hitter they need in the 7, 2, or 8 hole. He’ll probably come cheap too, as he is currently riding the bench in Boston. Signing Casey to a 2 year deal, maybe for 7-8 million, makes a lot of sense if they can pull it off.
As for the bullpen, again, nothing too major here, but I would bring in a lefty specialist, perhaps like Scott Eyre, who’s been very effective for the Phillies. Chan Ho Park has resurrected his career in the Dodger pen, and Juan Rincon may be worth a look if he could return to the pitcher he was 2 seasons ago. They should be able to find a pitcher available for an under 4 million price tag. Eyre’s probably the safest bet.
3rd issue) How the team looks in 2009
Okay, assuming the O’s get everyone I’ve suggested, here’s the new rotation:
1) Jeremy Guthrie, 2) Jon Garland, 3) Daniel Cabrera, 4) Moyer/Maddux/Johnson (Johnson is probably the realistic bet here), 5) Liz, Burress, Olson, or Loewen, whomever pitches best
2) The bullpen remains relatively the same, although with the addition of Scott Eyre or Park
3) Here’s the lineup if they land Sean Casey, probably the best target for them
1) Brian Roberts 2) Sean Casey 3) Nick Markakis 4) Aubrey Huff 5) Melvin Mora 6) Luke Scott 7) Adam Jones 8 ) Ramon Hernandez 9) Castro, Bynum, or Cintron if they keep him.
Not a bad lineup. Certainly able to keep up with the Blue Jays and Rays. Starting pitching will still be a weakness for the team, but should Guthrie continue to develop, and backed up by Garland, this team would be pretty competitive. The Old Hand would help immensely, as would Garland with his postseason experience. And for the record, Mora bats 5th to split up the Left-Left combo of Huff and Scott.
Now if only we could convince Angelos to sign off on these moves…
We begin by looking at the state of the playoff races, namely, who’s alive, who’s on life support, and who’s dead. Then I’ll make bold/foolhardy predictions for the playoffs and you can all laugh at me.
1st Issue) The American League Playoffs
The AL East has gotten tight lately with Boston surging and Tampa Bay falling. To be honest, I’m not that suprised. Both of these teams are going to make the playoffs, the question is will the Red Sox be the wild card or the Rays? Count both teams as alive. Given how poorly both teams play away from home look for the Rays to expand their lead by a game in the upcoming series against the Red Sox (which is in Tampa). Mark the Yankees as dead. Barring the biggest collapse in sports history from the Red Sox, White Sox, or Twins, New York will miss the post season for the first time since the early 90’s (and I’m sure many of you Orioles fans will no doubt celebrate that).
The AL Central continues to have the tightest race in baseball. The Twins and White Sox have been battling for the division lead since July and neither team can shake the other. However, the White Sox just swept Detroit. I smell a winning streak coming on. Late in the season, in a tight race like this, the outcome is usually determined by the team which rattles off a couple of series sweeps.
The AL West race is already over. The Angels juggernaut has already clinched the division, leaving Texas to try for their first winning season in a while, the A’s to examine the state of their franchise, and the Mariners to sink further into the morass that is Seattle these days. I am REALLY glad I’m not a Mariners fan now.
You have probably noticed I don’t have many teams on life support. That’s because there really aren’t many teams with just a small chance to make the playoffs in the AL. Whoever loses the AL Central race is going to be left out in the cold, as the loser of the AL East race is going to claim the Wild Card.
So, here’s my prediction for the AL Playoff picture:
AL East Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
AL West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Boston’s on a hot streak but then has to go into Tampa to play the Rays and finishes up with a home stand against Cleveland and the Yankees. Really, it’s 50-50 at this point, but if the Rays get a couple of games up on the Sox after their last series this weekend, Tampa gets the crown. The White Sox have a slightly easier schedule than the Twins, but they do have to go into Minnesota for the last series. That will determine the division winner, but I think Chicago’s starting a hot streak.
2nd Issue) Who’s almost dead in the NL
Okay, things over in the senior circuit are a little more interesting. Only 1 team is a lock to make the playoffs, although another will probably make it. But the NL East and Wild Card is very much in flux. So this section will have a different format. I’ll look at each team in detail, starting with who’s got the least chance of making the playoffs, describing what needs to happen and what spot they can obtain.
Who’s nearly cooked:
Team 1) The Houston Astros. Rating: Halfway fried. What is it with Ed Wade teams and Wild Card runs? His team in Philadelphia did the same thing in 2003: abysmal play in August drops them out, then they played unbelievably well to just climb back into the race in September before tanking in the last week. Same thing is happening here. The Astros have played great ball to end August and open September, going on a phenomenal winning streak. They’re now 2 games behind the wild card lead. Unfortunately they’ve run into the freight train wearing Cubs blue, and as of this writing are set to drop their second straight game to Chicago. Doesn’t help matters when you get no-hit at the “neutral” stadium of Milwaukee (the Astros have to play a “home” series with 25,000 screaming Cubs fans packing the lower decks of Miller Park in Wisconsin). While they’re schedule is fairly easy, the ‘Stros have to leap frog Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or the Mets should the Phillies regains the NL East lead. It’s not going to happen.
Team 2) The Arizona Diamondbacks. Rating: Sizzling on the grill. Once the darling of baseball Power Rankings, the Diamondbacks are a case study in how the mighty can fall without an offense. Arizona now has a losing record and is nearly 5 games out of the division lead. Baring a Dodgers collapse, they’re done. They don’t have the offense needed to rattle off a win streak.
Team 3) The Milwaukee Brewers. Rating: Thoroughly stewed. Brew-crew fans must be pulling out hair in fistfuls after their team was swept by the Phillies in a four game series at Philadelphia. Last night saw the Phils tie for the wild card lead. Last year, Milwaukee also suffered a late season collapse, though the 2007 fall began in August, not September. And today, Milwaukee ownership fired manager Ned Yost. This has all the signs of a crack-up, unfortunate for the team, as their 2 starting aces, Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia, will probably leave via free agency. I can’t count the Brewers out because they have the best starting pitcher in baseball after the deadline, Sabathia, who’s been undefeated while pitching for them. But the offense has gone cold and the series against the Phillies has shown just how suspect the bullpen really is.
I have to agree with the Yost firing though. The man’s a bad manager. I was at the day game of the double-header yesterday, and Yost gave the game to the Phillies. Get ready for a lesson in baseball strategy.
In the bottom of the 8th, Phillies Right Fielder Jayson Werth led off the inning with a single. Second baseman Chase Utley then surprisingly sacrificed to move Werth over to second, into scoring position. Up stepped Ryan Howard, who has been hot in September, batting .350. The Brewers had Brian Shouse, a left-handed reliever who throws side arm (meaning he releases the ball in a throwing motion at his hip instead of over his shoulder). There’s 1 out, so what do you do?
You DON’T do what Yost did. Even though Howard is hot right now, he’s a left handed hitter, which means he wouldn’t see the ball very well since Shouse is a lefty sidearm hurler. Good chance to get an out here, especially since Howard strikes out at an ungodly rate. That means a runner on second with 2 outs and you bring in a right handed pitcher to face Pat Burrell (who was on deck), and who’s been colder than a penguin’s flipper for the past month.
Instead, Yost panicked. He intentionally walked Ryan Howard, putting runners at first and second with 1 out. Admittedly, this sets up a double play oppurtunity, especially since Burrell is a very slow runner, but it only makes sense if you bring in a righty to face the hitter. Right handed hitters see the ball very well coming from a left handed sidearm pitcher, so you can’t leave Shouse in with that situation. Moreover, the batter behind Burrell, Shane Victorino, is a switch hitter who has much more power batting from the right side. And Yost left Shouse in. Burrell smacked a line drive single to score Werth, giving the Phillies a 4-3 lead, and Victorino followed by hitting a 3-run homerun to make it 7-3. And did I mention this was the bottom of the eighth?
If that’s kind of bullpen management that’s typical for Yost, his firing was overdue.
3rd Issue) The other NL teams
Chicago is a lock for the NL central. They have the best record and are playing good baseball. The Dodgers, riding Manny Ramirez and a Diamondback collapse, will probably be the 2008 NL West Champions. That leaves the Wild Card and the NL East.
Philadelphia just swept Milwaukee to tie for the wild card and gained 1.5 games on the Mets yesterday as New York’s bullpen blew another 2 run lead to lose the game to the Atlanta Braves. At this point, it’s anybody’s ballgame. Unless Milwaukee turns it around now they’re in deep trouble, as the team looks like it’s in one heckuva funk.
As I stated in a previous post the NL East is going to come down to the Phillies and Mets. The Marlins have faded, though with series against both New York and Philadelphia they will make a difference in who gets the crown. The Mets have the better starting pitching and the better offense, but once manager Jerry Manuel hands the ball to the bullpen things fall apart. Closer Billy Wagner is out for the remainder of 2008 and most likely all of 2009, and no one in the Mets ‘pen has stepped up. They have a collection of specialists in Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano, and Aaron Heilman who can get lefties or righties out, but not both. The only genuinely talented reliever is Duaner Sanchez. GM Omar Minaya was reduced to scouring the waiver wire to get relievers (their current closer, Luis Ayala, is a waiver wire pickup in a trade from the Washington Nationals).
This is 2007 all over again. Last year, the Mets bullpen caved in September and couldn’t hold any leads, and now they’re doing it again. Wagner going down is a big blow. The difference is, the Mets have fight in them. Their bats come up looking to get the lead back if the ‘pen blows it. Last year they would simply quit. We’ll see what happens. The Phils have the easier schedule between the two, with 2 series against Atlanta, 1 against Florida, and 1 against the Nationals. The Mets finish with a series against the Chicago Cubs, which could make all the difference.
But without further ado, here’s my prediction for the NL Playoff Picture:
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Wild Card: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers.
Okay, this one’s coming a little late because I’m incorporating the news from the trading deadline. A lot of moves were made on the AL side, especially by the teams in the AL East. So, let’s start here.
1st issue) The AL East
When you’re 4 games in front of the World Champion Red Sox and 8 in front of the Yankees, you’re no fluke. That’s the case with the Rays. The only thing this team is really lacking is a big right handed bat, since most of their power is from the left side. However, they lost out in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, but they still have the pitching to win the division, especially since Boston is now Manny-less and the Yankees ran into the onrushing freight train formerly known as the Anaheim Angels. The Rays finally have the one thing they’ve been lacking since the team was formed: pitching. For the longest time the rotation was patchwork at best. Now, with Kazmir, Shields, and Garza, they have a front 3 that matches up very well with any other team in the league, and a very balanced lineup that can do whatever’s required. We may have the makings of a new dynasty in the AL East, though if there’s one thing the Yankees and Red Sox have, it’s the money to make adjustments.
Which brings us to the Red Sox. Blockbuster trade is thrown around a lot in baseball. The term certainly describes a 3 team deal that sends one of the game’s predominant sluggers to Los Angeles to wear Dodger Blue, nets a rebuilding team 4 good prospects including a future starting 3rd baseman in Andy LaRoche, and a projected ace pitcher in Russ Ohlendorf (yes, I think the Pirates made out very well in the trade), and gives Boston the best righthanded bat available after Manny Ramirez in Jason Bay. That being said, Bay’s bat is a definite downgrade from Ramirez. His slugging numbers aren’t as good (and I’m talking about slugging percentage, not home runs and RBI’s, the man’s OPS, or On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage, was nearly 60 points less than Ramirez’s at the trade deadline). He’s a better fielder, but an 55 year-old wheelchair bound man has a better left field glove than Manny. It should also speak volumes about the trade when every other team, and I mean EVERY OTHER TEAM, in the AL East was ecstatic that Manny was gone. Make no mistake, the Sox have taken a big hit to their lineup. Such is the price of clubhouse peace I guess. It’ll be interesting if the Dodgers somehow make the playoffs and ultimately face the Red Sox in the series. As it stands, Boston will get the Wild Card spot, barring….
…..an unusually long hot streak by the Yankees, which is possible given their offense. The Yankees suffer from being an old team and have sustained a barrage of injuries this season, from Matsui to Damon to Chien Ming Wang to Posada all going down. That said, you have to give GM Brian Cashman credit for some good moves bringing in Xavier Nady as a much needed right-handed bat and Damaso Marte as some much needed bullpen help, then dumping the inconsistent Kyle Farnsworth for Ivan Rodriguez, a move which helped both the Yankees and Tigers address needs (I’ll get to Detroit later in this post). Right now, New York is a study in what a tough division does to a good team. Put the Yankees in the National League right now and they destroy any team in the NL West, and probably the NL East as well. Maybe Milwaukee and Chicago would give them a hard time in the NL Central, but still. This is a team that 1 through 8 on its lineup will hurt you, and has some good pitching in Mussina and Pettite. But the pitching is just average. The middle relief is not lights out, and the back end of the rotation needs some work. They also don’t have a slam-dunk ace up front, like Tampa Bay has with Kazmir, the Angels have with Saunders, Santana, or Lackey, Boston has with Beckett. Only a fool would count them out, but barring a Boston collapse, I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs.
I’m not giving Toronto or the Orioles consideration because they’re done and playing out the string. Toronto’s been decimated by injuries and has no offense. The Orioles’ suspect rotation is finally catching up to them and the bullpen’s started to crack under the strain, not to mention lack of a true cleanup hitter is finally hurting them. But at least a few players are taking a step in the right direction. Adam Jones is a serious candidate for rookie of the year (although he probably won’t win since Evan Longoria in Tampa is so popular), and Guthrie may be turning into a top of the line starter. We’ll see what the future brings.
2nd issue) The AL Central
Who would have thought Minnesota would be contending in their division after losing Johan Santana and Torii Hunter? Not me, and definitely not the White Sox or the Tigers.
Let’s start with Detroit, a team which the sportswriters in the country labelled as the best in baseball prior to this season. But Detroit’s season so far demonstrates 2 things: 1, how important Curtis Granderson is to that offense, and 2, how important a bullpen is to your season. Detroit’s ‘pen was decimated earlier this year, and they started off the first month seemingly incapable of scoring even if they bribed the opposing pitcher. The horrendous start has put them in a hole which they haven’t recovered from. Right now, they’re a game under 0.500, which is better than I thought they’d be, given the injury to Dontrelle Willis. Simply put, Detroit needs pitching. Right now the rotation is a shell of the group that got them to the World Series in 2006, even if they still have 4 of the 5 members on the team.
The White Sox and Twins are both surprising. Last year, the Sox just couldn’t hit, but the reemergence of Jermaine Dye and hitting of Carlos Quentin have helped them tremendously. Jim Thome has always been a consistent hitter, even if he’s reaching the twilight of his career. The pitching’s also been a big improvement, returning to the form seen in the championship year of 2005 and the 90 win season of 2006. Minnesota, in contrast, finished with a 79-83 record, lost their 2 most talented players, and find themselves back in the hunt for a division title. How, you ask? The emergence of a couple of players in the lineup, and better than expected starting pitching. The Twins bullpen has been consistently strong in the past, which has helped take the pressure of the young arms now comprising Minnesota’s rotation. Somehow this group, with the exception of Boof Bonser, managed to field 2 starters with ERA’s in the 3.7-3.8 range and two more with ERA’s in the low 4’s. Minnesota’s outstanding defense probably contributed to that. Denard Span has also emerged as the sparkplug for a decent, if unspectacular lineup. Most of the Twins’ power resides in 1B Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel, but Joe Mauer is just a pure hitter. Between Mauer, Span, Morneau, Kubel, and Delmon Young, the Twins have a pretty good nucleus here.
This brings us to the Kansas City Royals, the holder of Baseball’s record for most losing seasons in a row (which they’re not going to break any time soon). I can’t imagine a more frustrating team to root for than the Royals. The team has no money, no pitching, and is always in the cellar. At least every other bottom feeder in the game gives their fans a glimmer of hope once in a while. The Royals have not, do not, and unless the situation changes drastically, will not compete for a long, long time.
Finally we have the Cleveland Indians, who seem intent on playing like their movie counterparts in Major League. This team won the AL Central and made it to the American League Championship Series (ALCS) last year. Now they’re a shell. Casey Blake has been traded to the Dodgers, Fausto Carmona’s been hurt and hasn’t been the dominant pitcher he was last year, Jake Westbrook’s also down, and C.C. Sabathia’s gone. Hafner’s only use lately is to pay bills for the hospital system in Ohio. The only 2 bright spots are Grady Sizemore, who’s having a career year in center field, and Cliff Lee, who should earn the Cy Young if he lasts the year. The GM probably made the right decision in pulling the plug on this group and trading away players. Sabathia was gone after this year anyway (don’t be surprised if the Yankees offer him the moon in a contract this offseason), Blake was a decent 3B but not the best in the game. We’ll see what the new prospects do, but this team is consigned to rebuilding for the 2009 year.
3rd Issue) The AL West
If you’ve read my post about the player awards during the All-Star break, you’ll see several players representing the bums that are the Seattle Mariners. Along with the Indians, this team has to be the surprise of the year, if one’s talking about trainwrecks. The entire lineup with the exception of Ichiro is a shambles, the bullpen should simply be put out of their misery, and the rotation has enough holes in it to sink a ship. Even worse, the team’s asking prices for the players they tried to deal at the deadline made Manhattan high-rise condos seem dirt cheap. There is no excuse, none, for the inability to pull the trigger on anything with the state this franchise is in. This teams needs to take a good, hard look at its players, decide which ones to keep, and can the rest.
Then we have the Rangers, who will probably have a winning record for the first time in a while because of the best offense in Baseball (no joke). However, once again, this team lacks starting pitching. You’d think after nearly a decade of the same problem, ownership would have addressed this by now. Until they do, Texas will be stuck as an also ran. They’re looking up at the best team in the game this season, the Angels.
I’ll write about Oakland first though. GM Billy Beane made a good call in trading away 2 of his starters before the deadline, correctly deducing that he didn’t have the horses to catch Anaheim. The Blanton trade gave Philadelphia a much needed back-end starter, and in return the A’s got a converted reliever in Josh Outman with decent stuff, and a probably good 2B in Adrian Cardenas, who’s path to the Majors was obstructed by the best 2B in the game in Chase Utley. The Harden trade didn’t net much in the way of immediate impact players. But Beane’s trades did signal that the A’s were waiving a white flag at the season, which probably didn’t please the fans at all. The team’s fortunes have also suffered drastically, as they’ve fallen behind Texas into third in the division and now post a losing record.
Finally, this leaves the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who bar none are the best team right now. The first 3 pitchers in the rotation would be aces on any other team in baseball, the bullpen is phenomenal led by Francisco Rodriguez, and the lineup is now very good with the addition of Mark Teixeira. Beforehand, the Angels had the best pitching in baseball, with an offense that did just enough to manufacture runs to win the game. The basic premise was, Figgins, Kendrick, or Aybar gets on base, and Vlad Guerrero or Torii Hunter would drive them in, maybe Garrett Anderson if he came up. It wasn’t a very powerful lineup, but the first 3 hitters I named are all very fast. The team lacked another power hitter. Guerrero was good for 30 homers, Hunter for 20, but Anderson is past his prime and his slowing down. He still hits for average, but the 25-30HR seasons are long gone. Teixeira changes this equation. Now the Angels have a .290 average, 30HR hitter who plays excellent first base, oh and by the way, he switch hits equally well from both sides of the plate. So now the lineup has 3 speed-demons who just get on base period, 2 guys who hit 30HR, a 20HR hitter, and a guy who hits .290-.300 every year. That’s a superior lineup. And did I mention their pitching is lights-out already?
No team in baseball wants to face these guys, and I can’t blame them. Unless some disaster befalls them, like a mass leg-breaking of the entire rotation, I don’t see how this group can be anything but the favorites to win the World Series.
4th Issue) Revisiting the NL West
Me and my big mouth. For months I’ve been griping about how no team in the NL West has any offense, then what to the Dodgers and Diamondbacks do? They prove me wrong. You know you’ve got a good GM when he makes moves to address gaping holes. In the Dodgers case, it was a power outtage big enough to blanket California. GM Ned Colletti traded a gaggle of prospects to land 3B Casey Blake, who should give them a 20HR threat, and of course, Manny Ramirez. The only way you haven’t heard about this one is if you’ve been buried in a hole for the past week and a half. Manny is, well, Manny. He’s a .300 hitter, 30HR threat, who drives in runs. Exactly what the Dodgers needed. LA has the best hitter in the division now, but the lineup is awfully, awfully crowded. Andruw Jones has turned himself into baseball’s most expensive bench player, after Gary Matthews Jr. anyway. The team sorely misses Rafael Furcal though. With him in the lineup, and Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, this lineup would be pretty good. Given how poorly Arizona has played since May, the Dodgers may actually catch the Diamondbacks and take the division title.
Arizona’s made a counter-move today though. They traded for the NL homerun leader, Adam Dunn. Not sure yet what the specifics are, but Dunn does give the D’backs a much needed power threat. He does strike out too much though. Still, the D’backs will get men on base in front and behind him. We’ll see what happens.
This week we’ll be taking a look at each division, summarizing what’s happened, where the teams stand, and bold predictions for who finishes where. Today we start with the National League:
1st Issue) The NL East
Okay, yes we’re starting here because I root for the Phillies, who are tied for the NL East lead with the suddenly hot New York Mets, and are only a 1.5 games up on the surprising Florida Marlins. Atlanta is in 4th place, 6.5 games back, and the Washington Nationals, competing for Baseball’s worst record, are a full 16 games behind at the break.
There’s not much to say about the Nats. They have no offense, the starting pitching is poor, the bullpen is mediocre without a healthy Chad Cordero. This isn’t even a rebuilding year. The team’s a mess. The only person on the field worth keeping is the 3rd baseman Ryan Zimmerman, and he’s having a bad year. Atlanta’s once promising season is starting to unravel. The Braves can’t win on the road, compiling a 15-30 record, and their starting pitching is in the tank without John Smoltz, who’s reinjured his shoulder. Their offense is still potent, so they will have hot streaks, but they’ll struggle to get to .500.
This division is going to come down to the Phillies and Mets. Everyone around baseball keeps waiting for the Marlins to fall away, and I’m one of them. The Marlins have one of the poorer pitching staffs in the NL, giving up a 3rd worst 490 runs scored. Their offense, leading the NL in home runs, has been keeping them afloat, but you win pennants with pitching. The Marlins don’t have it, with arguably the NL’s worst starting pitching rotation. The Mets are still the Mets. They’re on a hot streak because they’re getting good starting pitching and timely hitting…and because they’re playing the Rockies, Padres, and Giants. I’d be more impressed if they were facing teams that could hit out of a wet paper bag.
But sarcasm aside, they’re back. It’s a dogfight now between 2 teams: the Phillies have the great offense and bullpen, the Mets have the better starting pitching. We’ll see who wins in the end.
2nd issue) The NL Central
As usual, 2 teams in the NL central aren’t contending again: The Pirates and Reds. This must be getting monotonous for those living in the rust belt. Neither team has contended in the last decade. Of the 2, the Reds this year appear to be taking a step forward. They have a lot of dynamic young talent, with Jay Bruce, Cueto, and Edison Volquez. One should expect them improve. I give them a couple of years before they start fighting for the division crown.
While the Reds are on the way up, the Astros are on the way down. 1st year GM Ed Wade, a perennial target in Philadelphia, traded away most of Houston’s pitching in the farm system to bring in Miguel Tejada and Michael Bourn. Tejeda’s rightly made the All-Star team, but the rest… Houston had 2 big problems last year, a poor offense and a rotation consisting of Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, and a black hole. The offense is better, though Bourn’s been a disaster. The pitching is an abyss. Houston desperately needs another starter, preferably 2. Wade will try to sign one next year, but that still leaves a shaky bullpen, and someone to hit in front of Berkman, Lee, and Tejada. I don’t see them doing it, the team has too many holes.
That leaves the top 3 in the division: the Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers. It’s pretty clear at this point that the Central is the NL’s toughest division. The East has 3 decent teams but they’re all flawed in some way. The Cubs are arguably the NL’s best team. They don’t have a real weakness. Their offense is excellent, they have the best starting rotation. Their bullpen is slightly shaky in the middle innings, but the back end is great. The Brewers will probably fight the Cardinals for the Wild Card. Milwaukee’s substantially bolstered its rotation, as I noted last entry, and has a decent offense. The problem remains the pen, which earlier in the season was a nightmare (thanks for nothing Eric Gagne).
The surprise is of course the Cardinals. Nobody expected them to compete. Unless they make a move though, I think they’ll fold. St. Louis’ pitching has been better than expected, mainly due to Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellenmeyer. The Cards will get Chris Carpenter back in August, which is great for them, but the staff needs to hold up. The offense has also been better than expected, and does not show signs of slowing down. However, and you can chalk this down to a bold prediction, I like the Brewers chances better. The Cubs will walk away with the division, the Brew Crew gets the Wild Card.
3rd issue) The NL West
Oh, my, where to begin? Baseball’s 4th Minor League System The NL West is abominable, as I mentioned in a previous post. Nothing has changed. No team has any kind of offense. Even the Diamondbacks lack a punch these days, and are reduced to starting Conor Jackson in Left Field, a man who should play First Base, period, and go nowhere near anything else.
We may well see the first division won by a team with a sub-0.500 record. It’s that bad. The Padres and Rockies will duke it out with the Nationals for Baseball’s Worst Team of 2008. It’s fun to look at the former 2 teams though. They’re mirror images of each other. Colorado has no starting pitching to speak of besides poor Aaron Cook. The Padres only have starting pitching as a positive point, but a lineup that can be out hit by my grandmother.
San Francisco’s not much to talk about either. Another team with a poor offense, but excellent pitching. If they sign someone else to bat in the lineup besides Aaron Rowand, they could make a little noise, but with how poor the division is, 1 move could win it for a lot of these teams.
Finally we have the Dodgers. On paper they’re probably the most talented team out West, but injuries have taken their toll. Rafeal Furcal is sorely missed out there. Should he come back, LA can make a run, but otherwise I don’t see them catching the Diamondbacks. It’ll be Arizona by default, unless something drastic happens.
1st issue) Big moves before the trading deadline
The names C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden are very familiar to anyone who follows baseball closely. Sabathia was the anchor of the Indians starting pitching last year during Cleveland’s playoff run. Harden is reknowned for great pitching, when he’s healthy. Both were in the American league, and now due to the magic of the July trade season, both are in the National league central. Let’s examine each move in detail.
The first trade was C.C. Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers, who gave up 4 prospects to the Indians. Among the minor leaguers was Matt LaPorta, the most important pickup for the the Tribe. LaPorta projects as a power hitting first baseman and currently is in Triple-A, one step below the majors. Pure speculation on my part, but they’ll probably use him to back up Travis Hafner, who historically has been Cleveland’s big power threat. Another Triple-A pitcher, a left hander named Zach Jackson, and a single-A righty named Rob Bryson were also included, plus a player to be named later. Cleveland as a result has substantially restocked its farm system as it tries to break through Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota in a crowded AL central, though unfortunately for Tribe fans it’ll take a few years. The most important facet of the deal is that Sabathia is a free agent next year. So is Ben Sheets, who forms one heckuva duo atop the rotation for Milwaukee. This reveals that the Brewers are going to try to win it all this year, and may have traded the ability to contend for the next few as a result.
Personally, I think it’s a good move on Milwaukee’s part. They were trailing both St. Louis and Chicago in the Central Division and wild card and needed to do something. The Brewers have a good offense centered around Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and J.J. Hardy, though the bottom of the lineup is very weak. What’s been holding them back is their pitching. Sheets is a good ace but the rest of the rotation is inconsistent. The need for a dependable starter behind Sheets was paramount. That’s what they’ve got in Sabathia. The bullpen is still shaky though. The back end with Torres as closer seems alright, but middle relief, particularly in the setup role, is problematic. We’ll see what happens in the next few months, but I expect Milwaukee to at least catch the Cardinals.
Which of course brings us to the other big trade, Rich Harden to the Cubs. It’s a decent counter move if you’re a Cubs fan, and it leaves Erik Bedard , intermittent member of Seattle’s DL and pitching staff, and A.J. Burnett as the last big starting pitchers available by trade. On the face of it Chicago gave up no big prospects. Matt Murton projects as a third or fourth outfielder, Sean Gallagher is a bottom of the rotation starter still a few years away from arbitration, Eric Patterson will probably become another in a long line of utility men capable of playing all infield positions, and Josh Donaldson appears to be a big catcher with a good eye, and anyone who reads Moneyball knows how much Billy Beane prizes hitters with high on base percentages. In return, the Cubs received Chad Gaudin in addition to Harden.
Oakland didn’t recieve any impact players in the deal. Donaldson may be their catcher of the future, although he’s currently in single-A right now. Murton’s certainly not a starter in a great outfield, but he’s a very good bench replacement. Gallagher fills Harden’s spot. To me, it signals a white flag from Oakland, indicating they don’t believe they can catch the Angels in the AL West. The proof is the release of Gaudin, who has been a very dependable middle reliever / spot starter, exactly what Chicago needs. Harden gives Chicago a rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Harden, then Jason Marquis. It’s a pretty good one, probably one of the NL’s best, though I don’t think it’s quite as good as Arizona’s.
So why then would Oakland give up a starter with supreme pitching ability like Harden and a good bullpen piece like Gaudin to fill out their bench? The answer is Harden’s health. Again, anyone who follows baseball closely knows 2 things about Harden: 1) he’s got great stuff; 1A) he’s hurt almost all the time. Harden routinely pitches half the year, period. He’s notorious for breaking down. This tune should be very familiar to Cubs fans after having Mark Prior and Kerry Wood on the team. The trade doesn’t look nearly as good when you factor in Harden’s health, which will become an issue. If Harden stays moderately healthy, it’s a great move for the Cubs, but knowing how often Beane swindles other teams, I’m guessing the Oakland A’s know something is up. In which case, Beane’s restocked his bench and landed a cheap starter, all for a middle reliever / spot starter. We’ll see.
2nd Issue: A tale of two teams…
Richie Sexson was released by the Seattle Mariners this week. The first baseman was in the final year of a 4 year, $50 million contract and was batting just .218 with just 11HR, following an abysmal year in 2007 where he hit .205 with just 21HR and 63RBI. Two things about the situation strike me: 1) If the Mariners wanted to release this guy, why wait so long after GM Bill Bavasi’s firing? 2) Just how far has Sexson fallen as a player? The entire situation is bad, and doesn’t speak well for the Mariners or the player.
In regards to the team, it’s yet another example of how disfunctional Seattle is right now. Reading various articles about the release leaves one with the impression that Seattle had wanted to let go Sexson for a month now, eating the $6-7 million remaining on his contract. No attempts made to figure out what’s wrong with him, no up front talks with the manager, or with the press. It doesn’t seem like they tried very hard to help him turn his season’s around. That’s a bad sign for anyone considering playing for the Mariners: you get in trouble, you have to help yourself out. Apparently Sexson’s “attitude” led to the sports equivalent of being fired.
Of course you have to wonder about Sexson’s conduct. I usually take managers at their word when describing player relationships, and Sexson had BIG problems not starting regularly at first, despite being an offensive black hole. He didn’t want to spend some time on the bench, trying to work things out. Any player with any common sense would just look at Sexson’s stat line, downright awful for a power hitter, and would agree to be benched temporarily. Simply put Sexson was hurting the team when he was in the lineup. It speaks poorly of the man that he wouldn’t accept some days off, or even a demotion, to get himself back on track. So you have to wonder if the team did ask him to take some time off, and he outright refused. You can’t help someone who refuses to be aided.
Contrast this situation with that of another struggling player: Brett Myers. Here’s Philadelphia’s opening day starter, struggling mightily, and the team demotes him to Triple-A. Myers is enough of a veteran that he can’t be sent down without his consent, which the team obtained. Notice, he wasn’t thrown into the bullpen like a reject, he wasn’t released, the Phillies talked to him to best figure out a way to get the man back on track.
Myers’ biggest problem is that he’s a headcase some times. His focus is a little lacking, and you can get to him mentally. That’s precisely what was happening in his last start, where he didn’t make it out of the 2nd inning against the Texas Rangers. Myers was on the verge of imploding, and the Phillies talked to him, asking him to go down to the minors to work out the problems and get his confidence back. The pitcher’s public comments speak volumes. He’s stated he didn’t want to do it, but management talked him into it, and he agreed with its rationale. And just to add icing on the cake, he said the Phillies handled the situation with a lot of class. This means 3 things : 1) Phillies management has an excellent relationship with its players; 2) The team handles it’s players as people, not cogs in a machine; 3) Brett Myers, at least, is a very unselfish individual. I don’t know if the man will get on track, but this kind of attitude is an excellent sign.
Next edition we break down how each division looks during the All Star Break.
1st Issue) Best Players in the NL and AL
We’re at the halfway point in the season, and I think it’s time to list the top performers at each position with some honorable mentions to boot. I expect a lot hate mail for this, so I’m already prepared. I’m breaking it down by league, so here goes:
NL:
C: Brian McCann. Easily the best hitting catcher in baseball with an OPS of .901, and a good arm too. In the middle of a potent Braves offense
1B: Lance Berkman. A tougher call, as both Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez have similar power numbers, however, Berkman is the better hitter and is having a monster season. Pujols would be in competition if he wasn’t hurt.
2B: Chase Utley. Still the best second baseman in both leagues, and is starting to come out of his slump.
3B: Chipper Jones. Keeping my fingers crossed that he becomes the next hitter to bat .400, and this is coming from a Phillies fan.
SS: Hanley Ramirez. One of the best hitters in a surprisingly powerful Marlins lineup.
OF: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Pat Burrell. All 3 are having great seasons offensively, though Burrell shows signs of cooling off. Holliday after returning from injury has been one of the few bright spots on an incredibly poor Rockies team.
SP: Tim Lincecum, Edison Volquez, Johan Santana. Santana’s been the bedrock and only reliable member on an inconsistent Mets rotation. Lincecum and Volquez are 2 rising stars and have pitched excellently for otherwise poor teams, though Cincinnati is showing signs of a rebound.
RP: Brad Lidge. Lidge has an ERA of 0.84 and has converted every save oppurtunity.
AL:
C: Joe Mauer. There really isn’t another choice for AL’s best catcher. The man is still one of the best pure hitters in the game, though his power numbers are somewhat lacking.
1B/DH: Milton Bradley. Putting up ungodly numbers down in Arlington.
2B: Ian Kinsler. Also putting up great numbers. Kinsler, Bradley, and Hamilton have been keeping the Rangers team at .500.
3B: Alex Rodriguez. Although he’s missed time the man continues to be one of the top offensive producers in baseball. Assuming he stays healthy, he’s the only real threat to Barry Bonds’ home run record other than the Federal Grand Jury.
SS: Oy. Derek Jeter wins by default, and that’s not saying much. Weakest group in baseball today are the AL shortstops.
OF: Josh Hamilton, Grady Sizemore, Jermaine Dye. Each are having outstanding years at the plate. Dye gets the nod over Quentin because of the latter’s injuries.
SP: Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Joe Saunders. Halladay is again demonstrating he’s one of the premier pitchers in the league. Hernandez is the only bright spot in the worst team in baseball. Saunders has made an impressive rotation in Anaheim now practically impregnable.
RP: Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan. A trio of old hands who still are unhittable after years in the majors. Game’s over when these guys get the ball.
2nd issue: Baseball’s Biggest Bums
These guys haven’t been performing at all as advertised. 1 for each position, both leauges:
C: Kenji Johjima. A shell of himself from last year, but typical of the Mariners.
1B: Ryan Howard. Definitely NOT justifying the 10 million in arbitration by batting .216 in cleanup, and on pace to break his own major league record for strikeouts. The book is in: pitch this guy away.
2B: Freddy Sanchez. This guy used to hit .300? Really?
3B: Bill Hall. Milwaukee moved Ryan Braun into the outfield to make room for Hall at 3rd. He’s responded by hitting .216.
SS: Jimmy Rollins. Last year’s MVP missed the 1st month due to injury and is batting 264, mediocre numbers, in the leadoff spot. The fire is missing too.
OF: Nick Swisher, Andruw Jones. Swisher so far has hit very poorly in a change of venue from a notorious pitcher’s park to one of the most homer happy places in the American league (Chicago). Jones has turned himself into a 13 million/year benchwarmer in Los Angeles.
SP: Barry Zito, Carlos Silva, Brett Myers, Kevin Millwood. Zito’s pitching is exhibit A for why Brian Sabean needs to be fired from San Francisco. Carlos Silva has in ERA of 5.69 after getting a 4 year contract. Millwood’s in the middle of his contract from Texas and is again demonstrating why he shouldn’t be anything more than a journeyman. Myers, counted on to be the Phillies #2, has been dreadful.
RP: JJ Putz, Trevor Hoffman. Putz has been hurt or awful in Seattle. Hoffman is showing signs of slowing down.
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