Spring Break
Time for an in depth look at the two baseball teams in Maryland, as each cements its status as the cellar dwellers of the division.
1st Issue) The Baltimore Orioles
Take an average offense and a below average pitching staff, then put them in the toughest division in baseball. You get the Baltimore Orioles and their current predicament. The O’s have a decent lineup, and some of their starting pitchers have held up alright, but they’re outclassed in every aspect of the game. You only win a division by being the best, and the O’s have to figure out a way to leapfrog 4 teams with much better pitching. Not gonna happen. I’ll examine the offense first from a statistics perspective, which means using OPS a lot. Remember, OPS stands for On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage, and is the best measure of a hitter, .750 is average for the American League, .900 makes you one of the best hitters in Baseball. The lineup is usually okay through the first 6 hitters, but once opposing teams reach the 7-9 portion of the lineup, Baltimore’s offense goes down the chute.
Fronted by Brian Roberts who’s had a decent year so far, with an average of .287 and an OPS 0f .797, the O’s leadoff man is once again a consistent producer for the team. Strangely manager Dave Trembly insists on keeping Adam Jones in the #2 spot in the lineup, despite the fact that Jones has been the best hitter on the team by far. His batting average is .312 with an OPS of .908 and he’s second on the team with 12 home runs (HR). With numbers like that Jones should be either 5th or 3rd in the lineup. RF Nick Markakis is having a good season with an average of .293 and an OPS of .820, a little low from the 3rd man in the lineup but passable (his power numbers so far this year are low, they should improve). DH/LF Luke Scott is having a very strong year hitting .306 with an OPS of .983, very good numbers, although he still remains a problem against lefthanded pitching. With those numbers though, Scott should not be hitting 6th, he should be 5th or 4th. Trembly insists on hitting 1B Aubrey Huff 4th. Huff’s batting average is a passable .272 but his OPS is .786, entirely too low for a cleanup hitter (it should be .830 minimum). Switch Scott with Huff, move Jones to the 5th spot, and put 3B Melvin Mora, hitting .277 with an OPS of .672 (his power numbers are way down) in the #2 hole and you’ll have a lineup which produces more runs. It’s needed because the O’s are getting very little production out of C Greg Zaun, who was quickly replaced by prospect Matt Wieters, injured SS Cezar Isturis, and OF Felix Pie, who continues to get starts with an average of .202 and OPS of .598. This with LF Nolan Riemold on the bench, who is hitting .283 with an OPS of .897 with the same number of at bats. The lineup should be:
1) Brian Roberts, 2B, Switch Hitter
2) Melvin Mora, 3B, Right Handed Hitter
3) Nick Markakis, RF, Left Handed Hitter
4) Luke Scott, DH, Left Handed Hitter
5) Adam Jones, CF, Right Handed Hitter
6) Aubrey Huff, 1B, Left Handed Hitter
7) Nolan Riemold, LF, Right Handed Hitter
8.) Matt Wieters, C, Switch Hitter
9) Cezar Izturis (when healthy), SS, Right Handed Hitter.
Nice balance of left and right handers, Huff gets switched back to 4th when he heats up, and the hitters in 1-7 are all fairly good. That’ll definitely improve the run production of the team, probably to an above average level. Thankfully Trembley already appears to be making these adjustments, in the Weekend series against Philadelphia, Pie was benched in favor of Scott and Riemold in left field, Jones batted 3rd, Markakis 2nd. We’ll see if he sticks with this switch of Jones and Markakis, it works better.
The pitching’s another matter. Once again, the Orioles have only 2 starters of any worth, and the rest are a black hole. Surprisingly, one of those starters is not Jeremy Guthrie, who’s produced an ERA of 5.4 because his WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) is a high 1.43 (good for a high 4, low 5 ERA), although his K/BB ratio is average at 2. Both Japanese import Koji Uehara and Brad Bergeson have been fine, but that’s it. Rich Hill has been inconsistent coming off his injury. The bottom of the rotation though, has been a complete mess. Adam Eaton was signed to a small contract and cut after starting only 8 games. Mark Hendrickson has been relegated to the bullpen in the same time frame. The bullpen’s been very good, but with a starting staff like this it doesn’t matter. The rest of the AL East simply has better starters across the board, for every team. The Orioles frequently enter the late frames behind and don’t have the offense to get a lead back. Expect the ‘pen to be burned out come August from overuse, just like last year.
Don’t expect much of a rebound in the coming months. This is not a .500 team. The O’s may win 75 games this year, which is an improvement, but that will only happen if Guthrie and Hill return to form. If they do, it gives the Orioles 4 average to good starters in a very tough division. Again, this group isn’t good enough yet to compete, there’s no #1 ace to rely on, which every other team in the division has. The offense should come around once Huff and Markakis start hitting better.
2nd Issue) The Washington Nationals
Yeesh. There I go predicting the Nats will “improve” from a 59-102 record last year and this year they’re on pace for a 45-117 record. The funny part, if you’re not a fan, is that the team actually has a much improved offense this year. Although it’s still slightly below average, the lineup is a far cry from the awful, awful group that was dead last in the National League last year, tying with the San Diego Padres for the worst offense in the Major Leagues. Washington’s 18-46 record, by far the worst in Baseball, is a result of having the worst pitching staff in the league. That’s not an understatement. These guys really are that bad, which is a shame, because there’s no one watching the team in the new stadium, except for fans of the opposing team.
The core 3 hitters of the Nationals Lineup, 1B Nick Johnson (AVG .306 OPS .843), 3B Ryan Zimmerman (AVG .310 OPS .901), and OF Adam Dunn (AVG .265 OPS .948) have been very good, but no one around these 3 hits consistently. The Nationals lack a true lead off man, the best options being SS Cristian Guzman (AVG .329 but walks too little to leadoff), or 2B Anderson Hernandez (AVG .263 OPS .667). C Jesus Flores, who was hitting well, may miss the season, and the team is stuck with a poor hitting platoon of Josh Bard and Wil Nieves behind the plate. Unfortunately the Nats have a glut in the outfield, with Dunn, a poor fielder, having to play left or right field. The best hitter of the remainder, Josh Willingham (AVG .246 OPS .890) is underused because he has a very, very poor glove. However, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris, and Elijah Dukes have all been incredibly poor hitters when they play, so the team really doesn’t have much choice if they want to improve their lineup’s performance. Someone is desperately needed to hit behind Adam Dunn and Willingham, for all his defensive liabilities, is the best bet.
But as I said the offense is really average. Once you get past the 5th spot in the lineup no one’s a real threat, but that’s normal for a lot of lineups around baseball. The Nationals starting rotation and its bullpen are a complete mess. Ace John Lannan is the only bright spot, everyone else is either marginal or worse in the rotation. And I mean everyone. The next best starting pitcher is with an ERA of 4.76, a WHIP of 1.36, and a very weak K/BB ratio under 1.0. That’s the stuff of a number 4 or 5 pitcher, not a number two. Don’t ask about the rest. It’s a chamber of horrors. Daniel Cabrera, late of the Orioles, has been designated for assignment by the team, i.e. he’s been cut like Adam Eaton. The bullpen is not much better, outside of decent performances from specialists Joe Biemel and Julian Tavarez, but these guys can’t pitch against hitters batting from the opposite side. Closer Joel Hanrahan’s been a nightmare.
Add all this up and you have an even worse situation than Baltimore. At least with the Orioles there’s the prospect of Guthrie, Hill, and Huff returning to form which should help the team play better. Washington has no hope from its own pitching staff. It’s been a long, long time since I’ve seen a group this incompetent, and I have to think very hard to come up with another bunch of pitchers I would have less faith in as a manager. With rumors of a firing iminent, Manager Manny Acta may not be around much longer, as the Washington ownership desperately needs some kind of scapegoat for this disaster…
We’re 2 months through the season, 2/5’s of the way there. Now is the time to examine who’s been surprising, who’s stunk, etc.
1st issue) Why hot starts are meaningless
It happens every spring. A few teams post very good records in the first two weeks, or even months, and baseball pundits around the nation write about how Team X is for real, they’ll be in it until September. And what happens? Things fall apart. It constantly amazes me that men and women who cover the game all their lives keep forgetting Baseball’s cardinal rule: the season is a marathon. It’s not how you start that matters, it’s how you finish, and the pace you keep during the run.
Now, do teams which start hot maintain the pace? Are there surprises? Sure. There were surprises last year, there are surprises this year. But one can always tell if a team’s going to fade or not after a hot start, if you’re careful and look at the talent available. Several sportswriters waxed poetic about how the Florida Marlins were another powerhouse for the NL East after their 11-1 start in April (they’re now 32-33, a 21-32 record since), or how Kansas City had finally arrived behind Gil Meche and Zach Greinke (KC has fallen to 28-34, 4th place in the AL Central). Wrong on both counts obviously, but it’s easy to see why people get carried away. Florida has big money teams to deal with in the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Mets, and KC has been the AL Central’s whipping boy for so many years people just want to see an underdog do well, finally.
The key to not being “suckered in” as it were is to recognize that teams which have one strength, but other flaws, always have hot streaks. Both KC and Florida have very good, young, starting pitching. The problem is both teams have glaring holes. KC has a below average offense, while Florida has no bullpen. Teams like this, with blatant weaknesses, always cool off.
2nd Issue) The Good Surprises of 2009
The most surprising team in the AL is Texas, hands down. They’re finally getting some pitching to go along with their offense. Do I still expect them to fade? Yes, mainly because of injuries. Josh Hamilton is down for a few weeks, and if they lose any members of their starting rotation they’ll fade rapidly as the team is stretched thin in that department as it is. But I’m not referring to Texas Rangers injuries. I’m talking about the LA Angels of Anaheim. This is a team which started the season without 2 of their 4 starting pitchers. John Lackey, an ace anywhere in any league, was sorely missed, and the team suffered a tremendous psychological blow with the death of young prospect Nick Adenhart after a tremendous start to open the season. When the Angels finally get healthy, they’ll be hot on Texas’ trail, and I think they’ll ultimately catch the Rangers.
For the NL, I’m torn between the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Francisco Giants. The Brew Crew, remember, lost Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia to free agency, although Sheets had surgery on his pitching arm in the offseason. Their starting rotation was greatly weakened, yet young hurlers Yovani Gallardo and Dave Bush has stepped up in a big way. Will it be enough? I don’t know. If the Cubs resurge (more on this later) or if St. Louis fixes its bullpen, the Brew Crew is in a lot of trouble. As for the Giants, they’ve put together an incredible pitching staff fronted by Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, and Matt Cain, with an excellent bullpen. If this team had 1 or 2 more good hitters they’d be a big threat to win the wild card or fight the Dodgers for the NL West Title (which the Dodgers are running away with), but outside of newcomer Pablo Sandoval and way overpaid CF Aaron Rowand the Giants have no one of consequence in the lineup. Barring some kind of disaster, they post a record close to 0.500
As for individual players, in the AL the honor must go to Russell Branyan, current 1B of the Seattle Mariners. Branyan is a career .237 hitter with 148 homers over a 10 year career (lifetime OPS 832) who’s now hitting .313 with an OPS of 1.026, nearly 200 points above his average (in fact, an OPS above 900 is excellent). Now, obviously the guy can’t keep this up for the whole year. It would be fun if he could, but that’s highly doubtful. Still, he’s one of the few bright spots on an otherwise poor team.
The NL player award goes to Raul Ibanez. Now the starting LF for Philadelphia, Ibanez has been ungodly, raking everything that’s come his way. Playing in the hitters park for the Phillies has really boosted his numbers (his previous home, Seattle, is a big pitchers park, many of Ibanez’s doubles in Seattle would have been homers in a smaller field). A career .288 hitter with an OPS of .830, Ibanez is hitting .322 with an OPS 1.058, and his 22 homers this year nearly equal his 2008’s 23 HR total. Ibanez, by the way, is 36 years old. A new park, different pitchers, and a better lineup are all factors. In Seattle Ibanez was the only hitter besides RF Ichiro Suzuki. In Philadelphia, he’s one of 6 big hitters for the club. Thus, he’s seeing better pitches. Hats off to Philly for a great signing.
3rd Issue) Big Flops of 2009
In terms of disappointing starts, one need look no further than the Oakland Athletics. Beset with offensive woes last season, the A’s partly remedied that problem with the pickups of Jason Giambi and Matt Holliday in the offseason. The offense has improved, but is still below average. The problem is the woeful pitching, which has come apart at the seams. You can officially write-off my 2009 prediction for this team. They’ll likely finish third, well behind Texas and Anaheim, and they’ll probably battle with Seattle for the “honor” of cellar dwelling the in AL West. GM Billy Beane needs to get some hitting and pitching in his farm system immediately, so expect another fire sale at the trade deadling. Matt Holliday will have a lot of suitors looking for a big bat.
On the NL side, the biggest disappointment by far is the Chicago Cubs. They still remain the universal pick to win the weak NL Central, who’s first and last place teams are separated by only a few games. Looking at the pitching, the Cubs actually have one of the strongest staffs in the league. That’s not the issue. Chicago’s offense has been very poor, a shell of it’s 2008 self. Perhaps Joe Torre and the Dodgers were on to something when they shut the Cubbies down in the 2008 playoffs. Alphonso Soriano, Giovanny Soto, and Milton Bradley are all hitting very poorly, Aramis Ramirez has been hurt, and Derrek Lee is putting up less power numbers than normal. The lineup is still overbalanced on the right side, and the team can’t score runs. That needs to change. I think it will, but the NL central is now a 3 team race between the St. Louis Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs. It didn’t have to be. Chicago’s let those teams into the game.
Player wise, the biggest bum in the AL is Jason Giambi. When he was healthy as a 1B/DH for the Yankees Giambi averaged an batting average/on base percentage/slugging percentage of .257 /.409/.532 for the 2005, 2006, and 2008 seasons, so far he’s hitting .207/.343/.374 for Oakland, well below average, even below his injury plagued 2007 line of .236/.356/.433. He’s still getting on base at a good clip, but his power is sorely missing and it’s reason Oakland went after him. Even a slugging percentage of .450 would be a needed improvement for the team.
For the NL, it’s a coin toss between Alphonso Soriano or Milton Bradley. Both are outfielders, both have large contracts, and both are giving fans heartburn. Take your pick, but both belong in the doghouse. Personally, I’d choose Soriano, since he’s the leadoff man for the team, and his numbers are so poor he’s dragging down the rest of the lineup batting first.
Yeah, I know, the flop teams have the flop players. I’m aware of that. The players are some of the reasons the A’s and Cubs are underperforming. If the players improve, the teams improve, that’s why.
Yesterday, a beloved man died in Washington, DC. His name was Harry Kalas. He was the broadcaster for the Philadelphia Phillies. We called him The Voice. His baritone musings during triumph and tragedy overlay every memory I have of watching my favorite baseball team on TV. I can still hear his homerun calls, and no one ever said them like Harry. “Oughta here!” was a phrase coined by, and done best, by this man.
For myself and for the city of Philadelphia, we are in mourning. We feel as though we’ve lost a family friend. All my life I heard Harry’s voice call Phillies games. The players would change, the owners would change. Even the stadium changed. But Harry was always the constant. You’d hear the exultation in his voice when Mike Schmidt, Hall of Fame Third Baseman, would hit a homerun, or the agony of seeing the Phils blow a lead and losing a close game. He’d be there with us, in our homes, jumping for joy when we’d win, or moaning when we’d lose. For 31 years he was the voice, and we would listen.
Harry was the kind of guy who could make friends with anyone. You’d walk up to him and instantly you’d like the man, his voice, his charm. He was always approachable, he’d always say hi and chat. I met him once when I was in High School. Of all things, it happened while I was at a bowling alley with my father. We chatted for a few minutes, and as a joke Harry did a play by play when my father threw a bowling ball down the alley. We doubled over in laughter. My family met him again years later, after I had moved down to Baltimore. He was signing autographs, and my mother, thinking quickly, gave him something to write on. He must have laughed at the sight. It was that day’s edition of the Philadelphia Inquirer. I still have the paper.
I drive up every weekend for Sunday Phillies games. My family has season tickets, and I join them in rooting for our team. From our vantage point, you can look into the broadcast booths and pressboxes. And sometimes, when I’d look, I’d see him there. His figure was unmistakeable.
When I heard the news yesterday, I had to leave the lab. I needed the space. I work close to Camden Yards, the Baltimore Orioles ballpark. I walked to the stadium, where they let passersby travel the concourse, and I walked to a gate where I could overlook the field. I was alone, and then a memory of Harry calling a homerun hit me.
And I started to cry. I cried for a good ten minutes. While I was in tears, I started speaking to Harry. I told him I loved hearing his voice. I told him he was always the Voice for me, that through all the players and the games he was the constant. I told him that I’d miss him, that it would never be the same without him. Because nobody did it better. I told him that every memory I have of the Phillies on TV has his voice.
And then I saw a bird fly up and away from the stadium seats nearby. I said Goodbye to Harry. I told him that now he’d get to call a game with Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio, and the rest. I told him that hopefully, God willing, I’d be up there with him someday, watching Heaven’s version of the Major Leagues.
As I walked out of the Stadium, another memory came to me. Harry’s favorite song was High Hopes. He’d sing it during the few times when the Phillies would win something of note, when they won the 1993 National League title. I was present at the ballpark when the Phillies won their division in 2007. After the game, and some celebrating in the locker room, Harry lead the players back onto the field, where they started celebrating with the fans still at the field. He stood at homeplate and starting signing High Hopes. We all joined in.
I’ve had the tune stuck in my head ever since. It was Harry’s life philosophy in a way. You have to have High Hopes. Come what may with our teams, we all have to have High Hopes, High apple pie in the sky Hopes. Harry has been and always will be the Voice of the Phillies for me. I will always remember him, whenever I go to the ballpark to see my team or whenever I hear the game being called on TV or radio. No one did it better.
Rest in peace, Harry. You will be missed.
Part I: The West
And now we come to the part all Baltimore fans are waiting for: my take on the state of the American League. But, as I told you before, I like dragging things out, so we start with the American League West, which had won good team last year and 3 very flawed ones.
1st issue) The Seattle Mariners
Meet the latest candidate for worst 2009 record. Seattle is in the mother of all rebuilding modes after its 2008 meltdown. Anything that can go wrong, did go wrong. Only All-Star RF Ichiro Suzuki and LF Raul Ibanez provided any real offense and now Ibanez has been signed by the Phillies. Seattle’s wheeled and dealed with Cleveland, Boston, the Chicago Cubs, and the New York Mets this offseason, bringing in prospects or a few bench players and giving up parts of its bullpen or bench in return. The trades will favor Seattle in the long run if the prospects work out (and a few will), but in the short term the Mariners have no one in the pen and the bench is woefully thin. Seattle has a good one-two punch in the rotation with Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard (provided they’re healthy), but the offense is even worse than last year with only 3B Adrian Beltre and Ichiro left. The rest of the rotation is also thin, so for Mariner fans, it’s going to be a long, long, LONG, rebuilding process. Rating: Same
2nd Issue) The Texas Rangers. It’s the same story, year after year. The Rangers have a dynamic offense and score runs but never have any pitching. Texas had the number one offense in all of baseball last year, and also the worst pitching staff. The offense has been markedly weakened with the the loss of OF/DH Milton Bradley, though the team will still score plenty. Nothing’s been done to improve the team’s number one weakness though, its starting pitching. The Number one is Kevin Millwood, followed by Vincente Padilla, who both belong in the #3 or 4 spots. The rotation behind them is a complete mess, and all Texas has done is sign a couple of starters like Kris Benson to minor league deals to compete for the 5th spot in the rotation.
It’s been a consistent problem in Texas for the last 10 years. No pitcher wants to throw from the mound in Arlington, and who can blame them? The Rangers’ home field is widely known as the one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Year after year the team makes an offer to the best free agent pitchers and they always get turned down or outbid by the Yankees, Red Sox, et. al. You can expect another typically poor performance from the Texas pitching staff this year. While the offense still has Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Hank Blalock, and Josh Hamilton, it’ll be hurt by the loss of Bradley. Expect Texas to take a step back this year. Rating: Downgrade.
3rd Issue) The Oakland Athletics. Billy Beane’s never been known as the type of GM to take a losing season lying down, and the man has a mystical ability to assemble a competitive team seemingly overnight. The A’s most pressing problem last year was an inability to score runs. The average for runs scored by an American League team in 2008 was 774.5. The A’s scored 646, making them dead last, but the pitching staff held up very well allowing only 690 runs, even after trades which sent Rich Harden to the Cubs and Joe Blanton to the Phillies.
It’s easier in Baseball to build a good offense than a good pitching staff. Beane has traded his closer Huston Street, a middle of the rotation starter Greg Smith, and highly touted OF prospect Carlos Gonzalez to Colorado, receiving 2007 MVP candidate Matt Holliday in return for a 1 year rental (Oakland has almost no chance of retaining him in free agency). They’ve also signed Orlando Cabrera, the top SS available and a decent hitter (lifetime OPS .711, not bad for the SS position), and Jason Giambi returns as DH. Giambi can still hit the ball very well, and if 3B Eric Chavez returns healthy the A’s will have a formidable heart of the lineup.
As for the pitching, it may be as good as last year’s or not. Greg Smith was the most consistent starter for the A’s after losing Blanton and Harden. Justin Duscherer may be one of the AL’s most underrated pitchers and now we’ll see how he does with a full workload. Dallas Braden was also effective with limited time. Gio Gonzalez is a highly touted pitching prospect with an electric curveball. The bullpen, minus Huston Street, still seems fairly strong. But given that most of the starters are little more than kids, it’s hard to gauge how good they’ll be. Overall, I believe Oakland’s offense will show significant improvement, especially if Chavez is healthy, scoring in the mid-700’s. The pitching will not be quite as good, but still effective. It just won’t be enough to challange for the division title. Rating: Upgrade
4th Issue) The Los Angeles Angels. I miss the days when these guys were just the Anaheim Angels. This team returns a largely intact pitching staff in 2009 which was arguably the best rotation over the 2008 season. The same could be said for the bullpen; although closer Francisco Rodriguez is now a New York Met the Angels have replaced him with former Rockies closer Brian Fuentes, who is very good. I doubt K-Rod will be missed much here. Losing Jon Garland to the Diamondbacks is also not much of a blow as Garland was the 5th starter. The team still has John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jered Weaver, and they’re a very formidable group with a pretty good bullpen to close out games.
The problem for the Halos is the loss of 1B Mark Teixeira. At the start of playoffs last year I believed they were the favorites to win it all, at least until they were bounced in the first round by Boston. Tex gave the Angels a potent heart of the lineup besides Torii Hunter and Vlad Guerrero. Although the latter 2 remain, alongside leadoff man Chone Figgins, Los Angeles has also lost another good hitter, Garrett Anderson, to Atlanta. Anderson’s loss is countered by the signing of OF Bobby Abreu, an On-Base machine and a lefty bat, but Texeira is irreplaceable. Without him, the Angels are reduced to their small-ball style of play. The pitching is so good they don’t need a group of big boppers in the lineup to win the division, but as the playoffs showed, they’re in trouble in October. Oakland doesn’t look like it has the horses to catch the Angels this year, though the A’s will try. I expect Anaheim to take a step back from their 100 win season, but it won’t be enough for the rest of the division. Rating: Downgrade
Division Standings: 1) Los Angeles Angels 2) Oakland Athletics 3) Texas Rangers 4) Seattle Mariners
Part II Central
Here we come to another weak division. Although the AL central had plenty of drama with a see-saw division race between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox (which ultimately saw the Sox take the crown in a one game playoff), the field is still pretty weak. Every team has flaws, it’s just a question of which team wins the division.
1st Issue) The Kansas City Royals. Yet another perennial whipping boy for the Majors. Kansas City hasn’t been competitive since the early 90’s, just like the Pirates, but at least Pittsburgh somehow manages to get its hands on hitters. KC never gets anything right, either finishing with about 100 losses or flirting with a record in the 75 win range, which is what happened last year. The Royals’ pitching staff is underrated but they had no offense, scoring 691 runs last year (2nd worst in the league). Perhaps the economic downturn is hitting KC more than they admit, perhaps they’re all tied up with arbitration contracts, but the Royals have only signed utility man Willie Bloomquist and fireballing reliever Kyle Farnsworth in the offseason. They needed bats and brought in Coco Crisp from Boston to leadoff, followed by Mike Jacobs to hit 5th. Will it help? Probably, as most of their lineup is young and needs to mature.
Still, it’s a sub-par group compared to the Twins, Indians, and Tigers. Crisp gets on base far less than a leadoff man should and while Jacobs pounds the ball, he’s not a great hitter, with a lifetime OPB of .318. The big three for the team will be LF David DeJesus, who’s good but not great, RF Jose Guillen, who’s seen better days, and Jacobs. INF Mark Teahen may move from 3B/LF to 2B to replace the departed Mark Grudzielanek, while 3B Alex Gordon finally gets a chance to shine. For Teahen, Gordon, and Jacobs, now is the time to step up as they’re all entering their prime. If they come through, KC will make some noise by not being a pushover this year. They don’t have the starting pitching in the back of the rotation to compete for the division though. They might improve, it’s a question of how much. Rating: Slight upgrade.
2nd issue) The Detroit Tigers. This team made a lot of baseball analysts look fairly stupid last year when, as a result of a trade which netted them both 1B Miguel Cabrera and P Dontrelle Willis, the team was picked as a favorite for the World Series. I wish I was kidding, especially since the club finished last in the division, behind the usually cellar-dwelling Royals. I doubt that will happen again. The Tigers’ once highly touted starting rotation was awful last year, and by awful, I mean everyone, from ace Justin Verlander to veteran Kenny Rogers to Willis, had poor years. Add to that bullpen troubles where the entire backend is down with injuries the first two months, the loss of leadoff man Curtis Granderson until late May, and a slow start, and you have a team which dug itself a hole and never climbed out in 2008.
Most of ther starting pitching remains with the exception of Kenny Rogers who retired. The Tigers traded for Tampa Bay’s number 5 Edwin Jackson as a replacement, who was decent but not exceptional for the Rays. He should add stability to the bottom of the rotation. The other 4 members return, including Jeremy Bonderman, who was out the majority of last season. This likely leaves Nate Robertson out of the pecking order if Willis pitches better in the Spring. Should Verlander rebound and Bonderman be healthy, it’s a pretty good group. The bullpen has been improved with the addition of Brandon Lyon, a very reliable reliever, but it’s still not up to either the White Sox group or the Twins and is really an average collection of arms.
Detroit will sink or swim based on its starters. The offense collectively is still identical to the 2008 lineup which scored 821 runs, about 50 over the league average. With Granderson, Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen, the Tigers have one of the better lineups in the division, second only to Minnesota. The pitching must perform better if they’re to rise again, and I think it will, but to what degree is anybody’s guess. With the weakening of the White Sox, they may challenge the Twins for the division. Rating: Upgrade
3rd Issue) The Cleveland Indians. Talk about a tale of two teams. The Tribe was abysmal before the C.C. Sabathia trade with the Brewers, then become one of baseball’s hottest teams to finish with an 81-81 record. It was still disappointing as Cleveland previously lost to Boston in the 2007 ALCS, but a series of injuries certainly hurt the team. Travis Hafner, their 1B/DH power threat, was lost for most of last season, and C Victor Martinez, another big bat, was gone half the year as well. CF Grazy Sizemore had a breakout 2008 campaign though he probably won’t replicate his 30HR season (20HR is certainly doable though).
Besides the addition of INF Mark DeRosa (who has taken over 3B), a very good #2 hitter for the lineup, the offense is largely unchanged from last year. For Cleveland to compete in the division both Martinez and Hafner must be healthy, otherwise they won’t score many runs. It’s really not a bad front 5 by any means when SS Jhonny Peralta is included, but I would still rank the group behind the Tigers and Twins. Shin Shoo Choo showed flashes of a great RF for the team but it’s too early to tell as 2008 was the only time in his career where he played outfield full time.
The starting pitching is anchored by Cy Young Winner Cliff Lee, and behind him will be Fausto Carmona, who helped lead the Tribe to the 2007 ALCS but imploded in 2008. The rest of the rotation is highly questionable (I won’t use suspect, because they could be very good). Carl Pavano is trying to regain some semblance of the pitcher he was before his disastrous tenure with the Yankees and will be the team’s Number 3, followed by young rookie Scott Lewis and former hot prospect Anthony Reyes (who could be an ace but keeps trying to overpower hitters with his fastball). The bullpen has newly signed closer Kerry Wood (lately of the Chicago Cubs) with a collection of middling arms who are fair but not great. Like the Tigers, it’s a group that’s certainly behind the Twins and White Sox, although in Cleveland’s case a reliable closer is welcome (for the past few years the Tribe’s pen has been notorious for blowing saves).
Given the holes in the rotation (I remain skeptical of Reyes and Pavano until they prove they can pitch), and the bullpen’s general mediocrity before Wood, I don’t believe the Tribe can really win the division. Call it a 25% chance. Do I think they’ll give the division winner a run for their money? Yes. They just lack the horses in their staff to ultimately claim the crown. They’ll have a better than 0.500 record, but the degree is debatable. Rating: Slight Upgrade.
4th Issue) The Minnesota Twins. So close and yet so far. Other than a close World Series loss there’s few things more heartbreaking for fans of a team to lose a 1 game playoff at the end of the season. Moreover, Minnesota’s offense completely failed them (Chicago won the game with a 1-0 score). As I mentioned previously in the blog the Twins surprised a lot of people last year with a better than expected starting rotation. The offense was also very good. Both groups return intact, and now Minnesota has a completely healthy Francisco Liriano as its ace. Very few teams lose their 2 biggest stars (Johan Santana and Torii Hunter) and proceed to be more competitive. Minnesota hasn’t lost anyone and added 3B Joe Crede from the division rival White Sox, a nice bat behind their core lineup of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer.
Given the losses Chicago has experienced this offseason I have to rate these guys as the division favorites. They stayed in the hunt last year without Liriano and their staff, while young, should be even better this year. Joe Nathan is also an incredibly good closer anchoring a solid bullpen, the best in the division. I’ve already talked about the offensive core, and while Crede is not a great hitter, he is a decent power bat and should provide good pop from the bottom of the order. That’s exactly what Minnesota needed. They’re not up to the Red Sox or Rangers offensively, but they’re certainly the equal of New York. Rating: Upgrade
5th Issue) The Chicago White Sox. SS Orlando Cabrera. OF Ken Griffey. OF/1B Nick Swisher. Starter Javier Vasquez. 3B Joe Crede. These are all the starters for the Chicago White Sox who now play for other teams. Griffey, Swisher, and Crede are all 20HR threats. Vasquez is a reliable 3/4 starter. Cabrera was a decent bat for SS. In return, throw in 6 decent or good minor leaguers from Atlanta or the New York Yankees. Anyone besides me see a problem? The White Sox have been weakened both offensively and in pitching this past offseason.
The stated reason for the wheeling and dealing, for the cutting of ties with Crede, Cabrera, and Griffey, was to make the team younger. GM Ken Williams has certainly succeeded in this respect as the farm system has been well replenished. For the short term though, the ChiSox are in trouble for the 2009 season. The lineup still has a decent core with Carlos Quentin, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Paul Konerko. Having men on base around these 4 is a problem. There’s no leadoff man and the bottom of the order may be a fathomless pit for offensive power. The rotation is still very good, as the Sox retain John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Mark Buehrle, who were all fairly good last year. Bartolo Colon has come in to replace Vasquez but it’s a downgrade. The bullpen is still strong with Bobby Jenks holding down the closer position.
But with the Twins largely unchanged (except for adding Joe Crede), and a recharged Tigers squad, the White Sox can’t keep pace with their division rivals this year. Even if the pitching performs the same as last year their offense has taken a hit. Dye, Thome, and Konerko are on the wrong side of 30 (in Thome’s case he’s pushing 40). They’re not going to get much better. I expect a significant drop in runs scored, below league average being a distinct possibility. They won’t win the division again when that happens. Rating: Downgrade.
Division Standings: 1) Minnesota Twins 2) Detroit Tigers 3) Chicago White Sox 4) Cleveland Indians 5) Kansas City Royals
Part III The East
And now fot the part you’re all waiting for. Without further ado, the toughest division in Baseball for 2009, the American League East!
1st Issue) The Baltimore Orioles. I’ve covered the O’s offseason previously, so like the Nationals this will be a short summary and a small update. It looks like Rich Hill is in fact not healthy and won’t be ready to go when the curtain rises on the 2009 season (more back problems apparently). The team has also picked up Phillies castoff Adam Eaton and slotted him into the rotation (get ready for a disaster, Eaton’s beyond cooked, he’s deep fried). The offense is still solid with a core of Markakis, Huff, and Mora fronted by Roberts. The bullpen still seems good. But the starting pitching is too thin to compete, and with Hill down for the count, things have only gotten worse. The O’s need starting pitching, and until they draft or sign some, they’re stuck in the cellar. Rating: Slight upgrade
2nd Issue) The Toronto Blue Jays. A team with as good a pitching staff as the Blue Jays deserved better last year. Toronto had a Major League best 610 runs scored against but a poor offense, scoring only 711 runs. They finished with an 86-76 record last year, but when you’ve got to fight the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox, it’s just not good enough. If Toronto ever gets some bats together the AL East is going to be even rougher.
As it is, the offseason hasn’t been kind to Baseball’s north of the border franchise. Starter A.J. Burnett opted out of his contract and now pitches for the division rival Yankees, and the team has not signed any other bats to round out the lineup. That being said, both Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, the heart of Toronto’s offense, missed loads of time last year with injuries. With these two and 3B Scott Rolen healthy the Blue Jays will score more runs this year. Without them, Toronto doesn’t have any prayer. However, losing a starter of Burnett’s caliber hurts a good deal, so their pitching staff has taken a big hit.
Toronto’s in a situation where it just can’t win. The Yankees have reloaded their starting rotation, Boston’s solidified its own starting group, and the Rays have improved their offense by signing Pat Burrell as DH. These 3 teams are all better than Toronto is right now. Until the Blue Jays significantly improve their offense, they’re stuck in 4th place. Rating: Same
3rd Issue) The New York Yankees. It’s funny how an injury can ruin the prospects for a team. Well, it’s funny if you’re not from New York, and I’m sure many Yankees fans had brand new bald spots after they tore their hair out upon hearing the news that A-Rod was having surgury. Yes, Alex Rodriguez, perennial MVP candidate, latest member of the Steroid Age merri-go-round, and heart of the Yankees lineup, is out until at least May after having hip surgery (he’ll need a more invasive proceedure in the offseason). There were times when Rodriguez carried the Yankees offense last year, and although 1B Mark Texeira will be able to shoulder some of the load, A-Rod will be sorely missed in the first 35 games he’s gone (and it may well be more). The Yanks still have an above average offensive group, but Rodriguez would elevate them to one of the top AL lineups.
New York got rid of a lot of old players in the offseason. Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu are still capable players, but Texeira is a definite upgrade at 1B, and with Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui, the team is already overloaded with OF talent. Mike Mussina retired, Carl Pavano was finally jettisoned, and the Yankees signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to replace the two, definite upgrades to their biggest problem, the starting rotation. I’m a skeptic when it comes to Sabathia: I think he’ll be good, but in the pressure cooker of the AL East I don’t believe he’ll reproduce his Milwaukee Brewers numbers, I think he’ll post an ERA of around 3.9-4.2, which will drive some New York fans crazy. A.J. Burnett, as I’ve said, is a yearly injury liability and I strongly dislike such players.
With a healthy rotation of Chien Ming Wang, Sabathia, Burnett, and Andy Pettite, New York has an above average group, but these guys are outclassed by both Boston and Tampa Bay. If the Yankees are to get into the playoffs again this year, the offense will have to give them a boost. Unfortunately, with A-Rod out until mid-May at the earliest, they may find themselves in a hole. They’ll have to recover. Still, the Yankees have thrown a lot of money at their problems and it may work. The AL East is going to come down to a dogfight between the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. I don’t think New York will post a record to win the division, but they are a wild card threat. Rating: Upgrade.
4th Issue) The Boston Red Sox. Here’s another team which didn’t make many changes to it’s core players and for good reason. Barring a Game 7 loss in the ALCS the Red Sox would have played for their second straight World Series title. But what really kept the Red Sox from winning the ALCS, and also played a role in ”only” winning the Wild Card was their injuries. J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell, and David Ortiz, all great hitters when healthy and each capable of 30 or more HR, missed significant time last year. All 3 are once again are question marks regarding durability. Boston needs these guys to be in the everyday lineup, as their one clear advantage over the other AL East teams is a great offense.
You start with Jacoby Ellsbury, then Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, and finally Jason Veritek. Outside of Veritek there’s not one hitter who doesn’t scare opposing pitching in some way. One thru 8 are tough, tough opponents in the batter’s box. Lugo is currently hurt right now and Veritek, while team captain, will undoubtedly split time with newly signed catcher Josh Bard. During the offseason there were retirements (Sean Casey, Curt Schilling) or minor trades (Coco Crisp to Kansas City), yet the Sox haven’t lost any players of real import. The rotation is still very strong (though slightly inferior to the Rays) and headed by Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsusaka, and Josh Beckett. Brad Penny and John Smoltz have been brought on board to solidify the bottom of the rotation, which was a problem last year between Schilling’s and Wakefield’s injury problems. The bullpen is just as strong as last year with Jonathon Papelbon.
Boston is still one of the best teams in baseball. Normally, treading water is a bad thing, here it’s a good thing. The caviat of course is that the Sox must stay healthy, but that’s true for any team. The Red Sox have several old players with consistently ill health though. If 2 out of 3 from the Ortiz/Lowell/Drew trio are banged up most of the year or underperform, Boston will be in trouble and a rejuvenated Yankees squad will be breathing down their necks. Rating: Same
5th Issue) The Tampa Bay Rays. I guess a name change really can do wonders for a team. Heh, not really. The Rays finally received the one ingredient they were missing since 2005: honest to goodness pitching. James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and Andy Sonnanstine were one of the best starting pitching rotations in baseball. Although highly touted lefthander David Price will start the season in the minors, I still maintain that Tampa’s starters are better than any other group in the division. It’s the bullpen that’s a source of concern. Closer Troy Percival, very good last year until his injury, has had surgury and won’t be back for a while. Someone will have to close in his stead.
The Rays have actually been busy shoring up their two weak spots this offseason. The team had no power from the right side of the plate (only 3B Evan Longoria could take a pitcher deep, 1B Carlos Pena, OF B.J. Upton, and OF Carl Crawford are all lefthanded). So, they released aging DH Cliff Floyd and signed former Phillies LF Pat Burrell to DH in his stead. Burrell’s statline is very consistent with a very good career OPS of .852, but he swings from hot to cold very quickly. Jumping leagues will probably bring down his numbers, but he’s not expected to bat in the heart of the order. As for the bullpen, the Rays have signed several veterans, from the very good lefty specialist Brian Shouse, to the oft-injured former closer Jason Isringhausen. They already have a good setup corps (it would not surprise me if manager Joe Madden uses a closer by committee strategy), these guys should be effective middle relief.
So, we have the best starting pitching in the division, an improved offense from 2008, and a bullpen that still looks strong. So why are many baseball fans and sportswriters not picking the Rays to win the division again? Some people still believe the 2008 season was a fluke and the real Tampa Bay team isn’t as good as their 2008 record indicated. I disagree. The starting pitching is NOT a collection of young arms first introduced to the majors: Shields, Kazmir, and Garza all had years of big league service before 2008 (Garza was with the Twins). I doubt they’ll regress as others are proposing. The offense has also been good for years. Tampa’s chances hinge on their bullpen. The group was lights out last year with and without Percival. It needs to replicate its success for the Rays to make the playoffs. Since I believe that a World Series participant is the team to beat until proven otherwise, these guys are my pick to win the AL East in 2009. Rating: Same.
Division Standings: 1) Tampa Bay Rays 2) Boston Red Sox 3) New York Yankees 4) Toronto Blue Jays 5) Baltimore Orioles
Please note, the 2/3 spots are highly interchangeable. It would not surprise me if both Boston and New York finish with the same record.
Part I: West. Starting now I’ll be examining each division in baseball, rating the teams’ chances for a division crown or a wild card berth. There will be no predictions for who will win the World Series, just who has a decent shot at the playoffs and who hasn’t. First I’ll state whether I think they’ll improve on their 2008 record, followed by how I think the division will look at the end of the season. Since most of you care more about the Orioles, I’ll keep you reading later (and satisfy my own sadistic tendencies) by leading off with the National League. We start with what again looks like Baseball’s worst division in the NL West.
1st Issue: The San Diego Padres
You can just pencil the Padres for the bottom of the division again. While the team had a decent rotation last year, it’s bullpen was subpar save for Trevor Hoffman, and the offense was one of the worst in the majors. San Diego’s done nothing to address those problems, trading its starting shortstop, Khalil Greene, to the St. Louis Cardinals and losing both its catchers. The back end of the rotation has also signed elsewhere, and although the Padres still have a dynamic duo in Jake Peavy and Chris Young, the only other player really worth watching is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who will once again be the center of the offense. Most teams improve in the offseason, here, San Diego has taken a step back. Rating: Downgrade
2nd Issue: The Colorado Rockies
Colorado had similar problems as the Nationals last year, with most of their lineup missing significant time last year due to injuries. Once the team got healthy, they played much better in the second half, but the pitching staff didn’t live up to the 2007 form which led the team to the 2007 World Series. Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes are both gone, Holliday in a trade to the Oakland Athletics that brought oft-injured closer Huston Street, highly regarded center fielder Carlos Gonzalez, and middle of the rotation starter Greg Smith to Denver. The Rockies offense, their biggest strong suit, has taken a hit, but they still have plenty of bats between Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, and Todd Helton. The problem with Colorado is the rotation, which is woefully thin behind underrated starter Aaron Cook, and the bullpen again appears mediocre, especially if Street is hurt (a near certainty). Clint Hurdle, the team’s manager, is in the final year of his contract, so perhaps a fire might be lit under Colorado’s collective behinds. I look for a small improvement, but their playoff chances are a long shot. Rating: Slight Upgrade
3rd Issue: The San Fransisco Giants
Give San Fransisco the Rockies lineup and they are a major powerhouse, hands down. The Giants boast one of the better rotations in baseball, headed by the trio of Tim Lincecum, 2008 NL Cy Young Winner, Randy Johnson, still dependable even over 40, and Matt Cain, a very good pitcher who would be a number 2 on most teams. The bullpen is also one of the more underrated groups in the game as well, especially with the additions of Jeremy Affeldt and Bobby Howry, both dependable veterans. It’s a mostly young staff I wouldn’t want to go anywhere near when they’re hot. Any GM in baseball would love it if he had this crew on the mound for him every game.
The problem with San Fransisco is an offense that can’t hit anything beyond the infield. It’s the same problem Washington had last year. The team has no power, and with one big bopper would easily place itself as the front runner to win the division, hence the rumors over signing Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn. Either of those players would have made the Giants favorites. As it is, they have to hope for big years from a group fresh out of the minors who probably need another year’s seasoning at the Triple-A level. The big signing for the lineup was shortstop Edgar Renteria, vastly overpaid at 2 years, $18 million overall (I’ve already blasted San Fran for this in a previous post). Until the offense improves, I don’t see them getting to October. Rating: Upgrade
4th issue: The Arizona Diamondbacks. Memo to Phoenix: when you’re biggest problem is the offense, you don’t let your 2 best hitters in 2008 walk. Arizona has lost both Orlando Hudson to the Dodgers, a double whammy as it improves a division rival, and Adam Dunn, the very definition of dependable slugger. Further, the pitching staff has been weakenend with the loss of Randy Johnson to the Giants, Brandon Lyon (a very good reliever) to the Tigers, and Juan Cruz may not be back as well (which leaves the Diamondbacks with an empty back-end). Granted, signing Jon Garland still gives Arizona a top flight starting rotation, but the offense is still a shambles and now their bullpen is severely weakened. I don’t see how they can possibly improve on last year’s 82-80 record with an offseason like this. The team’s gotten much worse, although with the awful NL West, you never can tell. Rating: Downgrade
5th issue) The Los Angeles Dodgers. Few teams can survive the loss of their number 1 starter, which is what’s happened to LA with ace Derek Lowe now pitching for the Atlanta Braves. Dependable starter Brad Penny, who was hurt frequently last year, has also departed for Boston, leaving the Dodgers with the middle of their rotation. Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Clayton Kershaw were all good on the mound last year, but now they have to move up a spot. Billingsley is very young and melted down in October against the Phillies, and Kershaw is unproven as well. These guys could step up or blow it. Randy Wolf was a decent signing for the bottom of the rotation, and former Giants ace Jason Schmidt will try to return to the mound this year.
I’m talking about the starters so much because these guys will make or break LA’s run. By holding on to Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake, by signing Orlando Hudson to replace retired Jeff Kent, and by letting Andruw Jones leave, the Dodgers have put together a pretty good lineup. It lacks real power besides Ramirez, but most of the hitters around Manny get on base, a LOT. They’ll score runs. The bullpen has a solid back 4 as well, although middle and long relief could be a little problematic. But overall, LA is the least flawed team in the division, and coul be quite good if their stsrters measure up. Rating: Upgrade.
Division Standings: 1) Dodgers; 2) Rockies; 3) Giants; 4) Diamondbacks; 5) Padres
Part II: Central. Now we move on to the NL Central, which has 1 very good team followed by a bunch of mediocre teams and 1 abysmal club. Obviously I’m referring to last year’s division winner, the Chicago Cubs, as the very good team, but we’ll start off with the NL Central’s favorite whipping boy for bad management: the Pittsburgh Pirates.
1st Issue) The Pittsburgh Pirates
Yeesh. Talk about wasted efforts. The Pirates have done nothing this offseason to improve the club other than sign their best players through arbitration. This team’s offense is average at best, and the pitching staff is a perennial candidate for worst in the majors. The same thing’s been said about this club every year since the 1994 strike. The team hasn’t gone anywhere in 14 years, and that’s not going to change in 2009 either. I don’t see how they’ll improve on last year’s record, but they can’t get any worse. Pencil them in for the cellar again. Rating: No change
2nd Issue: The Milwaukee Brewers) Now things get tougher for the predictions. From here until we get to the Cubs every team has problems, almost all related to starting pitching. It was starting pitching which propelled the Brewers to their first playoff appearance since 1982, on the backs of C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and Dave Bush. C.C. now pitches in Yankee pinstripes and Sheets is having surgery on his elbow. Most of the starting lineup returns intact and it was a slightly above average group fronted by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. These guys are fairly young and should get better, perhaps a small improvement overall here. The bullpen, a serious problem early on, was better when anchored by Salomon Torres, but he has since retired and been replaced by dependable closer Trevor Hoffman. With Jorge Julio for setup, the bullpen is anchored in back but highly questionable in the middle innings as it was last year.
But the bullpen isn’t nearly as worrisome as the starting rotation. The Brew Crew is relying on young righty Yovani Gallardo to be their ace, which he may be capable of but I don’t think it’s going to be this year, not with his injury history. Dave Bush is still present, but he’s not a number 2 starter, more like a 3 or 4. Braden Looper, Manny Parra, and Jeff Suppan are also back-of-the-rotation hurlers and Milwaukee is expecting them to step up. I don’t see that happening. If Gallardo is hurt at all and/or doesn’t pitch to expectations the Brewers are going nowhere this year. They don’t have the offense to make up for problems with the staff, and I don’t see how they’ll be anywhere near as good without both Sabathia and Sheets. Rating: Downgrade
3rd Issue) The Houston Astros. Let’s see: the biggest problem on the team is a starting rotation with absolutely no depth behind Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. And by no depth, I mean the 3rd starter was journeyman Randy Wolf with a 4.30 ERA, who’s now a Dodger (again), followed by Brian Moehler, a career 4.73 ERA pitcher who’s fairly inconsistent year to year. The 5th starter was Brandon Backe, who was abysmal. That of course, was in 2008. Now return 4 of the 5 same starters, and throw in Mike Hampton, who’s the definition of an injury plagued pitcher, and add a farm system that has no candidates to step up in case of injury, and you’ve got a perscription for major headaches in Houston.
Now I’m not being entirely fair here, as that is a better starting rotation than some of the worst teams in the league, and it could be good if Hampton is indeed healthy. But it’s a house of cards, and Houston doesn’t have the bats to make up for shaky pitching with an average but not exceptional offense. The bullpen is decent but certainly not lights out. The only move GM Ed Wade has made to shore up his lineup is signing catcher Ivan Rodriguez to replace Brad Ausmus. Pudge is past his prime and is not the hitter he once was. There’s also the matter of shortstop Miguel Tejada facing a little thing called perjury for lying to investigators over his steroid use. I doubt the team needs a guilty plea over this during the course of the season. This rotation isn’t even the best in the division and the offense is well behind St. Louis and Chicago. Houston’s not a bad team, but the only reason they were in a playoff hunt in September was a big hot streak. Unless they get big years from Backe and Hampton, they’ll finish at around 0.500. Rating: Downgrade.
4th Issue) The Cincinnati Reds. This team is something of an enigma. With a staff fronted by Edison Volquez, followed by former ace Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto, you’d think the Reds have a pretty good rotation on paper. The problem is both Harang and Arroyo had poor 2008 campaigns. Cincy is relying on some very young shoulders for the offense, which is centered around Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce, but it’s not up to the rest of the league. There’s no one who hits consistently around these 3, and so far their numbers aren’t good enough to carry a team. The Reds will only go as far as their rotation takes them, which means Harang and Arroyo have to bounce back to their 2006/2007 selves. The bullpen is average, anchored by the very good Francisco Cordero but I wouldn’t be 100% sure of the men in front of him. If the starters come back, the Reds should improve to a 0.500 record and may avoid their 9th straight losing season. If not, they’re in the tank. Rating: Small upgrade.
5th Issue) The St. Louis Cardinals. It’s hard to find another team recently that depends upon so many key players bouncing back from injuries. The Cardinals lost Albert Pujols for part of the second half, killing their playoff chances, ace Chris Carpenter was gone most of the year, and Troy Glaus had offseason shoulder surgery and probably won’t be back until early May. The Cards surprised a lot of people last year with a record of 86-76, mainly on the strength of their starting rotation and the emergence of Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel as legitimate bats. With Pujols and Glaus included, the Cardinals have a fairly good offense.
The starting rotation is also a match for the Cubs should Carpenter be healthy again (and he is back in fine shape judging from Spring Training reports); although losing Braden Looper hurts a bit, they still have Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, and Todd Wellemeyer, who were very, very good last year. I doubt they’ll put up the same numbers, but with Carpenter, look out. The problem for this team is a subpar bullpen. There’s no real closer, and the best arms are also specialists, like Trever Miller. If that sounds a little familiar, it’s because that’s the situation the Mets found themselves in when Billy Wagner went down with an injury, and look what happened. Healthy, the Cardinals are a legitimate threat to the wild card, and a long shot for the division. It depends on their injuries this year, and if the bullpen sabotages their chances. Rating: Upgrade
6th Issue) The Chicago Cubs. These guys are easily the division favorites. The front 4 of the rotation returns with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, and Rich Harden, a fearsome foursome and probably the best group in the league if healthy (yes, Harden’s always an injury risk). The lineup is also mostly intact, and now includes switch hitting Milton Bradley to help counterbalance a lineup where most of the power comes from the right side. Although the bullpen now lacks closer Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol is more than capable of filling that role, and the pen looks just as strong as last year.
But, there are a few holes. Milton Bradley is a notorious injury liability and doesn’t hit nearly as well from the left side, so the problem which shut them down in the playoffs remains. I’ve already talked a bit about Rich Harden, which is why he’s shunted to the Number 4 spot in the rotation. And Marmol has to be effective as a closer, there’s no reason why he wouldn’t be but there’s no way to be sure. Still, the Cubs have a very good team. I don’t see how they fail to make the playoffs unless they implode again (which is possible). Rating: Same
Division Standings: 1) Cubs 2) Cardinals (possible wild card) 3) Astros 4) Brewers 5) Reds 6) Pirates
Part III: The East
Now we come to the toughest division in the National League. With the defending World Series Champion Phillies, the New York Mets with a revamped bullpen, and the Florida Marlins, who may have the most underrated staff in the majors (and a very good one), it’s going to be another dogfight to the finish.
1st Issue) The Washington Nationals. I’ve already covered the Nats offseason in a prior post, so here’s the short summary. Washington’s done a lot to improve its offense, which now has some power, and should score runs in the mid 700’s for a season total (that’s average for the league). The bullpen is a shell of what it once was without Chad Cordero, and the starting pitching is very shaky, in fact it’s arguably one of the worst rotations in the National League. The Nats will improve on last year’s League worst 59-102 record, but they’re still stuck in the cellar. Rating: Upgrade
2nd Issue) The Atlanta Braves. The Braves are very much left out in the cold this season. They’ve rebuilt their pitching rotation from the mess it was in 2008. The rotation was decimated with the season ending injuries to John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, now it has consistent ace Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vasquez, Kenshin Kawakami and Tom Glavine. That’s 3 new, good additions, and on paper it’s a good group. Lowe and Jurrjens make a good duo, and Vasquez and Kawakami are decent middle of the rotation starters. Glavine’s in the twilight of his career and will be gone after this season. He’s holding the number 5 spot by default.
The bullpen’s not bad, but it’s not great either. Mike Gonzalez isn’t a shut down closer, nor are any other members of the pen lights out. That’s a problem if anyone in the back end is hurt, as no one can step up. Last year the pen was decimated by injuries and things were a disaster once manager Bobby Cox gave the ball to a new pitcher. But Atlanta’s biggest problem is its offense. Right now it’s centered around catcher Brian McCann and 3B Chipper Jones. Although both Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar, the team’s 2B and SS respectively, are good hitters who get on base, after aging LF Garrett Anderson (who’s lost a lot of his power) there’s really no one who hits well. RF Jeff Francoeur, once the darling of the Baseball press, has substantially regressed as a hitter. Matters are not helped when Chipper Jones goes down with an injury, and he’s missed significant time each of the past 4 seasons. Without Chipper, the team doesn’t score runs. They’ll improve on last year’s 72-90 record, but they’ll struggle to get above 0.500, especially without Jones. Rating: Upgrade
3rd Issue) The Florida Marlins. Here’s a dark horse in the division race, for 1 reason only: the starting rotation. Florida’s quietly assembled another cast of young arms that could shut down any offense. Chris Volstad, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Andrew Miller are all very good pitchers (Miller had poor numbers last year but the scouting reports are excellent). These kids could set up Florida for another year like 2003, when their staff of Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett, Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, and Brad Penny led them to a World Series title. But those kids will have to work in overdrive for the team to go anywhere.
Florida had a better than expected record last year because the offense was superior. The Marlins got a lot of pop between SS Hanley Ramirez, 2B Dan Uggla, 3B Jorge Cantu, and 1B Mike Jacobs last year. Mike Jacobs was traded to Kansas City and LF Josh Willingham was moved to Washington in a series of cost cutting moves (the Marlins did not want to pay their likely arbitration salaries). The offense has been weakened from last year, and the bullpen, already very shaky, is now a minefield with the lost of Kevin Gregg, its only dependable member. The bullpen will likely sink Florida’s chances for the division crown or wild card spot. I doubt their offense will regress as much, but they won’t score as many runs. The improved starting pitching will help a lot, but the starters will frequently be sabotaged when the shaky pen blows a lead. Rating: Same.
4th Issue) The New York Mets. And now we come to my favorite whipping boys, the Muts Mets. I’ll try to be fair. New York’s done a tremendous job revamping their bullpen, the Achilles heel which destroyed their playoff chances for the second year in a row. Gone are Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, and Duaner Sanchez. Gone is the cast of lefty or righty specialists who can only face hitters from the same side. In their place are J.J Putz and Francisco Rodriguez, both of whom are very, very effective closers (Putz will be setup, Rodriguez closer), and a new batch of relievers who can pitch to both sides of the plate . Only Pedro Feliciano and Nelson Figueroa remain from last year’s bullpen, and unless there’s a rash of injuries it should be a good group.
The offense is mostly unchanged from last year. Scoring 800 runs in the National League is no mean feat, but the Mets were 2 different offenses last year. Carlos Delgado had a poor first half before a switch was flipped and he starting destroying every pitcher he faced (OPS split pre vs. post All-Star Break: .783/.982). Delgado will be 37 in June and he’s a big body 1B, which means now is when his numbers will begin to decline. The Mets need him to produce in that lineup. If he duplicates his 2007 numbers, they’re in trouble (OPS .781). SS Jose Reyes is one of the premier leadoff men in the game, and David Wright at 3B and Carlos Beltran in CF give the Mets plenty of pop and star power. The bottom of the order, 2B Luis Castillo and C Brian Schneider, are poor hitters, while the corner outfields aren’t particularly good. RF Ryan Church is often hurt and LF Daniel Murphy lacks pop (LF is one of the power positions in baseball, teams like to get 25-30 HR out of that spot and Murphy doesn’t look like he’s capable of it). No offense is perfect, and the Mets have a good one, but they’ll need Delgado back to form to compete with the other bats in the league.
The Starting rotation is also good led by Johan Santana. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey are both very capable, although both missed significant time last season (Maine went down in late August and was lost for September, one of the reasons the Phillies leapfrogged the Mets and won the division). The front 3 isn’t a problem, the back 2 are. The 5th starter position was supposed to be a battle between Freddy Garcia (recovering from a torn labrum surgery, never good), Tim Redding (who’s out until May), and Livan Hernandez (past his prime and a shell of himself). Hernandez looks like the front runner, but he hasn’t been a good pitcher in several years. Meanwhile the Mets also resigned Oliver Perez to a 3 year deal. I’ve written about Perez previous and his consistency issues. These stem from a lack of control and health issues. While he appears healthy, I watched him in the World Baseball Classic, and his control has disappeared. That’s not a good sign. Pitchers who played poorly in the WBC in 2006 almost universally had off years in the season that followed.
Overall, the Mets have a much improved bullpen, a good offense, and a good rotation, but worries for the second 2. Things have to fall into place and they have to avoid injuries, something they’ve been unable to do the past 2 years (and it’s sabotaged their playoff hopes). On paper the Mets have the horses to challenge the Phillies for the division title. It’ll be another dogfight to the finish this year. We’ll see what happens. Rating: Upgrade
5th Issue) The Philadelphia Phillies. The 2008 World Champions are set to defend their title. The only significant change is the replacement of longtime LF Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez. I’ve already posted in December how this imbalances the lineup on the left side, and Ibanez is by all appearances a poorer hitter, but not by much. Burrell was wildly inconsistent in Philly, alternating between scorching hot and ice cold periods. Ibanez is much more consistent, but he’s also 36 and signed for 3 years. Could be good, could be bad. He’s known as a clubhouse leader and is well liked around baseball. We’ll see how he plays.
There’s been no change to a pitching staff that was dominant in the 2008 playoffs. Ace Cole Hamels recently had a “tightness in his throwing elbow” scare but appears fine, although #2 starter Brett Myers, brilliant in the second half, will likely pitch opening night. Ancient pitcher Jamie Moyer, who will turn 46 this season, is signed for an additional 2 years and should continue to provide veteran leadership. Capable Joe Blanton pitches as advertised: he gives the team 6-7 innings every start and keeps them in the ballgame. The only question is who will be the 5th starter, and the Phillies have an embarassment of riches. Highly touted prospect Carlos Carrasco still needs some seasoning at Triple-A, as does Kyle Kendrick, who lost the 5th spot in the middle of a performance meltdown in 2008. Lefty J.A. Happ has pitched very well and has great poise for his age, while former starter Chan Ho Park is also making an excellent case for the spot with lights out performances in Spring Training. It’s an established rotation and arguably one of the best in the league. The bullpen will lack lefty J.C. Romero for the first 50 games because of a positive test for a banned substance, but otherwise remains completely intact and should be just as strong as last year.
This is pretty much the same group that won it all last season. New GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has decided that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Because they’re the champs, and because I’m biased, they have to be the division favorites until proven otherwise. Rating: Same
Division Standings: 1) Phillies 2) Mets (Possible Wild Card) 3) Marlins 4) Braves 5) Nationals
1st Issue) The Sweetest Words…
Baseball fanatics like myself wait for certain phrases in the offseason. We stay glued to our computers during the November and December months when Winter Meetings roll around, looking for any news of Baseball’s Hot Stove of trades, releases, wheelings, dealings, and anything else to feed the hungry beast that cannot be sated without watching ballgames. In January we sit back a bit to enjoy football playoffs, but there’s still that knawing boredom of having no ball to watch. By the time February begins you start getting desparate, tuning in to the occasional basketball game because now even football’s done with, and then these magic words suddenly appear on team websites, on newspapers, on calendars around the nation:
Pitchers and catchers report…
Yes, Spring Training officially started last weekend for all 30 teams. It’s a time to assess the failures of last season, assess the trades of the offseason, assess the team’s chances in a new season. It’s the one time of the year when most fans get to look at their team in a positive light, because maybe with just the right combination of pitching, defense and hitting, maybe with the right amount of luck, maybe if everything falls together, their teams gets to make a run. It’s a 162 game season, and as the worst to first 2008 Tampa Bay Rays demonstrated, anything can happen…
…unless you’re among the 8 teams certain to finish last this year. Unfortunately for you, Maryland Baseball fans, that includes both the Orioles and Nationals. Hate to burst your bubble, but both teams are in a rebuilding mode. We’ll be looking at each team in detail.
2nd Issue) Orioles offseason
No big name signings by the inhabitants of Camden Yards had more than a few fans tearing their hair out. No Sabathia? No TEIXIERA?!!! Quite of few of you, in DC as well, had your hopes up on landing the Maryland native, only to see the hated Yankees sign the best free agent pitcher and hitter to long term contracts. Well, I did warn you that the O’s weren’t going to land a big name free agent pitcher this year, but I believe they’ve made several good moves that could pan out in the near future.
To explain further, GM Andy MacPhail is correctly foregoing signings of Type A or B free agents. Some of you may be asking what those are. In effect, to balance out richer teams signing good players away from small market teams, an organization signing a Type A player has to give its first round pick in the draft to the club the free agent played for the previous season. Signing Sabathia means the Brewers, who lost the pitcher, now get a pick from the Yankees. The rules making a free agent type A, B, etc, are baroque and hard for me to understand, but the important thing to note is that MacPhail’s been making the right call by refusing to give up draft picks. The Orioles farm system is a mess and he needs to rebuild the system with high quality pitching, which must come through the draft.
Now the free agent signings MacPhail has made have been fairly low key, certainly not worth the front page status the Yankees earned this offseason. But most of them are fairly smart. Signing Greg Zaun to replace Ramon Hernandez, who was traded to the Cincinnati Reds (more on this later), is probably the least risky, but a less effective move as Zaun’s only a defensive upgrade for the O’s and not much of a threat with the bat (his OPS isn’t any better than Hernandez’s). But Zaun was the best catcher available, and MacPhail’s replaced Hernandez’s power by signing Ty Wigginton, who can spell Melvin Mora at 3rd, Aubrey Huff at 1st, and plays Left Field as well. Given Wigginton’s power I expect him to start regularly in a DH/1B rotation, spelling Mora as needed. MacPhail also filled the hole at Shortstop by signing Cezar Izturis, who’s not much offensively but a good defender and fast on the basepaths. Baltimore’s offense doesn’t concern me. With a trade for Ryan Freel from the Reds, a fast utility man, the O’s should score plenty of runs. Locking up Nick Markakis to a long term deal was another smart move.
It’s the pitching, as usual, that’s worrisome. George Sherrill wore out down the stretch from overuse, but Chris Ray is ready to step in as closer should Sherrill become a problem again. Lance Cormier was the biggest loss in the offseason, but if the ‘pen isn’t worn out from overuse they might be okay. But’s that’s a Colossal IF. The O’s rotation is just as thin as it was last year, but at least some dead weight’s gone. Daniel Cabrera’s moved on to the Nationals, so his control problems are now in the National League. MacPhail’s worst move is signing Mark Hendrickson, a bottom feeder if there ever was one, who I expect to lose 15 games and have a mid-6 ERA in the AL East. At least he’s cheap. But considering what was out there, the O’s could have done a lot better than a Florida Marlins castoff. Hell, even Livan Hernandez could have worked better, at least he’s an innings eater. But there were plenty of mid to bottom of the rotation starters available who could have been signed for 5/6 million a year in the current market.
Still it’s not like MacPhail refused to address his rotation. But I feel he needed to make another move with the loss of Cabrera to the Nationals. Given Ben Sheets current status (he needs surgury on his elbow, which he elected to get after no good offers on the market), the O’s won’t even try to sign the man until after the June draft, as they won’t have to give Milwaukee a draft pick in that situation. Certainly he should have tried talking to the Marlins, given how little they received from Washington for both Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham (more on this later). MacPhail’s pitching moves amount to filling out the bottom of a rotation. I’ve already mentioned Hendrickson, who will probably be a disaster. The O’s also traded for Rich Hill from the Cubs and signed Koji Uehara. Both of these are medium risk, high reward moves. Hill looks like a classic “change of scenery” case. He was hurt most of 2008 with back spasms and lost his command as a result, but he also was a good starter when healthy, with roughly 3/1 K:BB ration and a 1.19 WHIP in his only full year with the Cubs in 2007. Hill’s going to be 29 in March, but coming to the AL East of an injury plagued season is the equivalent of being thrown to the wolves. Still, if he returns to the form he showed with the Cubs, he’ll be a decent middle of the rotation starter. As for Uehara, he’s played in Japan for his entire career and is something of a star pitcher, but he’s also in his early thirties. Frankly, I suspect if he was as talented as Daisuke Matsusaka or Hideo Nomo someone other than the Orioles would have signed him earlier. His Japanese numbers are excellent, with a career ERA of about 3.0, but I don’t expect him to duplicate that performance. Again, he could be a very good pitcher for the O’s, but he’s in the AL East.
So the final rotation looks like Guthrie, Uehara, Hill, Hendrickson, and whatever lucky kid pitches his way into the 5th spot from the gaggle of youngbloods the O’s have collected. Looks pretty thin if you ask me, and certainly doesn’t stack up well with any other rotation in the AL East. Things will only get worse if the front 4 are hurt, as there’s really no one who could step up in the minors. Given how much the Yankees have improved, how good the Rays still are, and Boston’s improved bottom of the rotation, the Orioles are destined to spend 2009 battling in the cellar with the Blue Jays. They’ll be an improved team, but I’ll be very surprised if they surpass 75 wins.
3rd Issue) The Nationals Offseason
Between the 2 Maryland teams, I’d expect a bigger improvement from the Nationals in terms of win loss record. This is for 2 reasons: first, the Nationals did more to address their primary weakness, power, than the Orioles did (starting pitching), and secondly because the Nationals were a worse team, in fact the worst team in the Majors with a 59-102 record. Now, the Nats will NOT have a better record than the Orioles this year. They’re still a bad team, because they still lack starting pitching and their bullpen has fallen apart. The offense is improved, but improving upon the 3rd worst offense in Baseball isn’t exactly a hard thing to do.
Washington’s biggest problem last year was an inability to score runs, which isn’t surprising given that almost every player in the lineup spent significant time on the DL. Still, when the core of your offense is centered around Ryan Zimmerman, a good but not great 3B, and Dmitri Young, who’s been healthy for 1 whole year his entire career, you’re already in bad shape. Washington’s most consistent hitter was Christian Guzman, who had a career year last season and won’t replicate his 2008 numbers. He’s a #2 or #7 hitter, not leadoff. Elijah Dukes was the Nats best hitter down the stretch, posting a .864 OPS over half a season, but he was the offense behind Zimmerman, and no one with the exception of Willie Harris and arguably Lastings Milledge was on base with any degree of regularity.
Well, when you don’t have anyone hitting more than 14 HR, you’re most pressing need is power. Washington partially addressed this and its woeful lack of starting pitching by fleecing the Florida Marlins in a trade for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham. Florida was in salary dump mode, dropping 2 arbitration eligible players in their never ending quest to have a combined team salary of under $20 million. Olsen is an average pitcher: his career WHIP is 1.45 with a 1.81/1 K:BB ration, normal for a 4/5 starter and certainly nothing to disparage, but nothing to get excited about either. He might improve, but I doubt it, considering he was throwing in a very pitcher friendly park in Florida. Washington still lacks a true number one or number two in the rotation, which now consists of John Lannan, Olsen, Shawn Hill, former Oriole Daniel Cabrera (who won’t be much better in the NL East), and Odalis Perez, should he actually show up for spring training. It’s one of the weakest rotations in the National League, in front of Colorado, Pittsburgh, and maybe Houston.
But as I said much has been done to address the offense, although the team still needs a true leadoff man. Josh Willingham was a very good pickup, although he overloads the LF/1B position, given that Nick Johnson, Milledge, Harris, and Dukes are also playing for spots. Willingham is a better career hitter than all 4 though, with a career OPS of about .830. He’s a yearly 20HR threat with an AVG that’ll bounce between .255 and .270, not a bad guy to hit 6th or 7th in the lineup. The Nats also added Adam Dunn, probably one of the most consistent power hitters the last 5 years. He’s an archetypal 5 hole hitter, with a career average of .247 but a career OPS .899 (he’s almost guaranteed to hit 40HR every year), exactly the kind of player Washington needed. Dunn’s also a 1B/OF player, so that’s 6 guys competing for 4 spots. Quite a glut. Given past performance Willingham and Dunn will start, and probably Milledge and Dukes as well. With Zimmerman at 3B, the Nats have a decent heart of the lineup. Given Dunn’s a lefty and Dukes, Willingham, and Zimmerman are all righties, I’d expect manager Manny Acta to bat Dunn in the 4th position, sandwiched between Zimmerman and Dukes/Willingham.
Washington will definitely score more runs. It wouldn’t surprise me if they score low to mid 700’s, an improvement by over 80 runs from last year’s awful 641 runs scored. Still, the starting pitching is weak, and the bullpen is not much better. They’ll improve by 10 games, perhaps to a 68-94 record. But until the pitching woes are addressed, they’re stuck in the cellar for the foreseeable future.
Okay, I’m still basking in the glow of the World Series win. Those of you who know me personally have seen me walking around campus with an omnipresent Phillies World Championship hat. Now it’s back to objective baseball analysis. And since it’s the offseason, it’s time to discuss the Hot Stove, Baseball’s nickname for the wealings, dealings, trade talk, retirements, and anything else that happens in the offseason.
1st Issue) Breaking down the best 5 trades and signings
1 & 5) The Yankees Shopping Spree: The best contract and one of the worst is in another Yankee shopping spree, collectively grouped under 1 heading for convenience. What else do you call inking 2 starting pitchers and the best first baseman on the market for a combined 20 years and $422.5 million dollars? The Yankees, as smart bullies do, signed the best pitcher and best hitter available. Of the 3, the Teixiera signing is by far the best. If you’ve read the blog, you’ve noted I’m high on the man, as anyone would be for a superb defensive player who hits for average and power from either side of the plate. He’s the least injury prone and the safest of the 3 signings. Plus, New York needed another power threat in the lineup after the decline of Johnny Damon and loss of Jason Giambi.
As the best starter available signing C.C. Sabathia makes a lot of sense, but there are caveats, hence why I label it as 5th best. While he’s in his prime, this horse has pitched over 200 innings repeatedly. There’s an increased risk of him breaking down. He also was 2 separate pitchers in 2008. In the American League, Sabathia was respectable, but certainly not the kind of pitcher who merits a $20mil/year salary. It was only in the National League, facing hitters who hadn’t seen him before, that he was completely dominant. I doubt he’ll reproduce his NL dominance in the new Yankee Stadium, and let’s not forget that Sabathia has a very poor record in playoff games. This leaves the Burnett contract, which is the worst of the 3 and is reminiscent of the Carl Pavano deal. Burnett is another ex-Marlins pitcher who has a history of injury problems. When healthy, he’s got a great fast ball and excellent command. But he’s never healthy, like Rich Harden before this season. I doubt New York will get 3 full seasons out of the deal, and that’s an optimistic prognosis. Pitchers never get healthier with age and Burnett is 31.
#2 Oakland Athletics: The second best trade/contract is the Oakland Athletics landing Matt Holliday for a year and sending Huston Street, their closer, one of their starters Greg Smith, and a promising CF Carlos Gonzalez to the rebuilding Rockies. Colorado desperately needs any kind of starter, so this may be mutually beneficial. Matt Holliday is the kind of big bat Oakland has lacked since Eric Chavez faded several years ago, and even though its a 1 year rental, the A’s didn’t lose much to land the 2007 runner up for MVP. Although he was hurt for part of the year, Holliday is still one of the games most feared hitters, and with Jason Giambi as DH alongside Jack Cust, Oakland now has plenty of pop. We’ll see if they have the pitching to compete with the Angels. Huston Street, while a good closer, is a constant injury liability, and Greg Smith appears to be a mediocre pitcher who fills in a spot at the back of the rotation, but it’s just what the Rockies need.
#3 The Mets rebuild their bullpen: Coming in 3rd is the signing of Francisco Rodriguez and trade for J.J. Putz by the Mets. New York’s collapses in 2007 and 2008 were brought about for 1 reason: the BULLPEN. Without Wagner there was no one the manager could rely on, and even then Billy Wagner had a tendency to blow big games. Both men can close, although Putz is coming back from an injury plagued season. The moves are obviously a year overdue. The Muts also gave up practically nothing in the Seattle deal besides a gaggle of minor leaguers, perennial bench player Endy Chavez, and Aaron Heilman, who’s a textbook case of a bust pitcher. Still, New York could use another reliever to consistently pitch the 7th inning, as the pen is still weak in front of Putz and Rodriguez.
#4 Surprise surprise, the Nats make a good trade: Finally in 4th we have the Nationals trading for Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen for Emilio Bonifacio in another Florida salary dump. Bonifacio is a career utility infielder who has as much a place in a starting lineup as a starving Rottweiler guarding an open meat freezer: something bad is going to happen. Considering the Marlins have a shortstop and second baseman already, it’s clearly a cost cutting measure. It’s a horrendous trade for Florida, which is why I rank it at number 4 for worst signing/trade, but great for the Nationals as it addresses their 2 biggest needs: Power and Starting Pitching. Washington is still going to be a poor team but at least now their not guaranteed to land in the cellar.
2nd Issue) 5 worst moves of the offseason
#1 Arizona doesn’t think it has a power outage: We’re not quite at the REALLY bad move stage, but there’s a couple of boneheaded decisions by 2 National League West teams that need to be highlighted. 1st is the inexplicable decision to not resign Adam Dunn by the Arizona Diamonbacks. News flash Phoenix: outside of Eric Byrnes you have a collection of singles hitters for a lineup. It’s what killed your team down the stretch last year. With Pat Burrell, Milton Bradley, Mark Teixeira, and several other big bats already signed it makes no sense to let Dunn go. Sign him or get another 30HR threat by trade, but do SOMETHING.
#2 San Fran is at is again: 2nd is the yearly boneheaded move of the Giants. When is ownership going to kick Brian Sabean out of the ballpark like he deserves? The GM of San Francisco came up with the brilliant idea of Barry Bonds = My Offense, then proceeds to sign no offensive talent around who was then the most feared hitter in baseball. He’s now stuck with a good rotation but an embarrasing lineup centered around Aaron Rowand, a .280 AVG 20HR hitter. So what does Sabean do? Sign Edgar Renteria, a 33 year old shortstop who’s best days are behind him, to a 2 year, $18 million contract. Renteria’s never been a power hitter and has clearly lost a step: his average dropped nearly 60 points alongside a horrendous .699 On base Percentage plus Slugging (OPS). His career OPS beforehand? 0.756, decent for a leadoff or #2 hitter (OPS is the best measure of a hitter’s ability to contribute to a lineup). He’s clearly in decline and NOT the hitter needed to rescue SF from their problems.
#5 What is Philly thinking?: I’ve already mentioned moves number 3 and 4 (A. J. Burnett to the Yankees and Florida trading Willingham and Olsen to the Nats. So that leaves number 5, where I mention the Philadelphia Phillies. Letting one of the power bats in your lineup leave is not a good thing, especially when it imbalances the lineup. Philly refusing to resign Pat Burrell does just this, as Burrell was the main righthanded power threat. Tampa Bay just signed Burrell to a 2 year, $16 million contract. I can understand the Phillies not thinking Burrell was worth the money. That’s not why letting Pat the Bat go is a boneheaded move. Philadelphia, to replace 32 year old Burrell, has signed 36 year old LF Raul Ibanez, a lefty, to a 3 year, $30 million deal. Ibanez, statistically, is not as good a hitter as Burrell (he’s good, but Pat was better), imbalances the lineup further as a lefthander, and is also a poor fielder. It doesn’t make much sense, unless the Phillies GM feels Burrell’s best days are behind him. Pat the Bat is one of the poorest defenders in baseball: he can be outrun by a three legged dog and has stonehands for a glove. He’s also maddeningly inconsistent. When he’s hot, he’s one of the best hitters in baseball. When he’s off, no one’s worse. Ibanez is a more consistent hitter and known as a good clubhouse leader. But it’s still a poor business move for the reigning champs.
1st Issue) There is no objectivity
I’ve been slaving away trying to write objectively somehow about the 2008 World Series. And, for the readers out there, I’m sorry, I can’t do it. Not after 15 years since the last appearance. Not after 25 years without a single championship parade. Not after 100 seasons of heartbreak between the Flyers, Sixers, Eagles, and Phillies. Philadelphia right now is bleeding Phils’ red. And the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies have already entered the town’s sports history as legends.
Being a Philadelphia sports fan is an experience unto itself. For one, you root for all 4 teams are fairly knowledgeable about each of the major sports in America. For another, there’s the reputation, which I’ll try to explain, at least somewhat. Yes, it’s deserved, we’re an unfriendly bunch, to certain groups of fans (yes, I’m talking to you, Mets, Cowboys, Knicks, and Devils fans). Really, if you’re an LA Angels fan, or an Orioles fan, we’re usually pretty nice to you.
But most of the negative stories come from Eagles fans. Yes they snowballed Santa Claus. Yes, they cheered when Michael Irvin was carted off the field with a neck injury. Yes, a criminal court has been built into the stadium to deal with the rowdiest knuckleheads (what would you do after a fan fires a flare gun at the opposing team’s bench? true story). About the only one I can defend is the snowballing incident. Team’s losing 48-0 on the last game of the season to the COWBOYS of all things, management decides not to clean the seats after a snow storm, the record for the year is 2-14, and out comes this drunken Santa Claus in the dirtiest costume you’ve ever seen? What would you do?
Phillies fans are a calmer bunch. Alright, we boo. So does every city in the Northeast. But you’re talking about a group that has remained faithful through a 126 year history with only 1 championship in 1980, only 6 World Series appearances (counting 2008), and the most losses in sports history. It’s not easy. We’re one of the founding clubs in the National League, older than all of the American League teams, and even the Cubs have more World Series titles than us, at 2 to 1. But we keep coming, year after year, and except for 1 magical year, our hearts get ripped out of our chests. And for those Orioles fans out there, we know what you’re going through. We’ve had to deal with the same nonsense in the 20’s, 30’s, 40’s, 60’s, late 80’s and 90’s except 1993. Bad ownership, no hope, the same problems year in year out.
So I’m doing something I haven’t done once in my life: enjoying the ride. I want to win this series, and I’m pulling for the team harder than I ever have before. We’ll see what happens. The Phils are already one game up as of this writing, so this is a little late, but here’s the World Series breakdown as BallPhreak sees it.
2nd Issue) Strengths and Weaknesses of the Contenders
We start by examining the 4 factors of a team: Starting Pitching, Bullpen, Offense, and Defense.
Starting Pitching: Here the Rays have a clear edge, though the Phillies do have a very good staff headed by the best starting pitcher in the Series, Cole Hamels. However, the Rays simply have more depth. Tampa’s 3 and 4 starters are superior to the Phillies’ men in most stats across the board. Matt Garza is a legitimate top of the rotation starter who will face Jamie Moyer, a 45-year-old lefty who hasn’t pitched well in the playoffs. Andy Sonnanstine, the Rays number 4, has also been very good. James Shields is also a better pitcher than Brett Myers, although not by the same margin that Garza outclasses Moyer. Still, the Rays will have to send Garza and Sonnanstine to the mound in Philadelphia, and they have a losing record away from home.
Bullpen: The edge here goes to Philadelphia, who’s back end has been completely unhittable in September and in the playoffs. Between Madson, Romero, and Lidge, the Phillies shut teams down in the 8th and 9th innings. Tampa’s in real trouble if they’re behind late. The Rays also have a very, very good ‘pen, but it lacks the completely dominant closer. David Price is preferable as a starting pitcher, not closer, and he’s also a rookie. Any manager, even an insane one, knows you avoid putting guys like that in late inning situations, although Price’s stuff is so good it might not matter. Still, between Balfour, Miller, and Howell, the Rays can also boast a formidable relief crew. Long story short: Philly gets the edge because of Lidge.
Offense: This is an age-old conundrum: what’s more important, power or speed? Both lineups are balanced and have both, but Philly has more pop and Tampa Bay is faster. The Rays have 1 40HR threat in Carlos Pena and a 30HR threat in Evan Longoria; the remaining power is provided by B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford. 2-5 is the danger zone for Tampa: shut these guys down and they don’t score. The remainder of the group, Akinori Iwamura, Ben Zobrist, et. al, hit for average and are fast, very fast. The aggressive running game is what makes the lineup so good. This is a tough, balanced attack for Tampa. But Philly’s is slightly better. Between Rollins, Utley, Werth, Howard, Burrell, Victorino, and Dobbs/Feliz, Philadelphia has a set of 7 batters who will take a pitcher deep if he makes a mistake, and Rollins, Utley, Werth, and Victorino are all very fast runners. It’s another tough, balanced, fast offensive attack, but it’s got more power, and Matt Stairs, Chris Coste, and Geoff Jenkins are all power threats off the bench. Edge Philadelphia.
Defense: Both teams are very good defensively, but Tampa gets the edge because they don’t have any holes. The outfield is very quick and the infield is surehanded. Philadelphia is very good defensively at 3B with Feliz, and up the middle with Rollins, Utley, and Victorino in center (Werth is also a very good defensive RF). The problem is Pat Burrell who has a good arm but glacial speed, and Ryan Howard, who has a bad glove. These are 2 holes in the Phillies defense. Manager Charlie Manuel nearly always substitutes a defensive replacement for Burrell in late innings.
3rd Issue: The Prediction:
I’ve already explained why I can’t be unbiased, and there’s the little matter that the Phillies have already taken 1 game. Still, to have a chance the Phils had to take the 1st game with Cole Hamels on the mound. Truthfully, I think they’ll drop games 2 and 3, grab games 4 and 5, then it’s anybody’s guess. But I gotta back my hometown team. Phillies in 6.
Well, that was an interesting first round. If any of you filled out brackets based on my predictions, I’ve made quite a fool of myself.
1st issue) Series Recaps
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs. Oy. Talk about epic collapses. The team with the best record in the NL was unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs. Remember what I mentioned last post, about an uncharacteristic power outage happening in the Windy City? Well, that’s exactly what happened. The Dodgers revealed the Cubs only weakness: no power bats from the left side. LA’s pitching was phenomenal, thoroughly bamboozling a once potent Cubs lineup, and plenty of offense was provided by Manny and the Boys (that’s my new nickname for the Dodgers lineup). But this wasn’t just the Dodgers playing well. The Cubs did their best impression of a Little League ballclub with 4 errors, one by every infielder, in Game 2, and their pitching failed them exactly when it was needed most. This was a sloppy, sloppy performance by the North Siders. Let me be crystal clear here: Chicago deserved to be swept, curse or no curse. LA looks pretty scary right now. The lineup still lacks homerun power compared to the other playoff teams, but the team does hit for average well, plays great defense, and has arguably the best pitching staff you’ve never heard about. They’ll be tough to beat, but then, any of the remaining 4 teams has a decent shot.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies. The one call I got right, though the reasons were different. Unexpectedly, the Brew Crew’s starting pitching proved to be their Achilles heel, not the bullpen, which only gave up 1 run to the Fightin’ Phils. Milwaukee’s bats weren’t much help either, being shut down by the Phillies pitching staff, who only gave up 9 runs over 4 games, 4 runs coming in Game 3. 9 runs over 4 games isn’t very good, although the Brew Crew probably had the weakest offense of all the playoff teams. Heck, they were the weakest of any of the teams. Milwaukee fielded an above average group, but really they rode to the playoffs on the back of C.C. Sabathia, and once he faltered in Game 2, they were done. The Phils don’t have much to crow about on offense either. Except for a pair of solo home runs in Game 4 all of Philadelphia’s offense came in just 1 inning each game. That’s not gonna cut it. They also got by without Ryan Howard or Chase Utley hitting (even Utley’s game winning RBI double in Game 1 was a lucky break, as centerfielder Mike Cameron badly misplayed a line drive). Philly’s pitching isn’t quite as good as LA’s although the bullpen is slightly better. The team’s going to have to hit if it wants to advance.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox. This was probably my biggest flub. Things I didn’t count on happening: 1) Francisco Rodriguez turning in the worst series performance of his career; 2) No one around the Angels 3-4-5 batters hitting; 3) The Angels starters being beat by the Boston starters. This is a case where the better team didn’t win. LA had the deeper staff and a pretty good lineup. Boston shut them down, mainly on the phenomenal pitching of Jon Lester, who’s Boston’s real ace, not Josh Beckett. Still, 2 of these losses can be laid at the feet of the Angels’ bullpen, which became suspect at the worst possible time. Rodriguez blew game 2 when the Angels tied it then nearly did the same in Game 3, escaping a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the 9th. Scott Shields, their setup man, allowed the series winning hit in Game 4. The Angels offense should also be taken to task. No one around Guerrero, Teixiera, or Hunter hit the ball well, and those 3 kept hitting singles. Bottom line, LA needs more offense. They need a real leadoff man to hit in front of the big 3. Rodriguez probably cost himself a few million on his upcoming payday as well.
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays. Guess the name change really matters. The Rays simply outplayed Chicago in every game except Game 3, when their starter Matt Garza gave up a big inning to put the Sox in front. Timely hitting, excellent pitching, the White Sox were simply overmatched early on, having to lead with Javier Vasquez and Mark Buerhle, who simply couldn’t go toe to toe with James Shields and Scott Kazmir. This is why rest is so important. Had the Sox not gone through their 2-8 losing stretch they could have rested their starters for 2 or more days, which would have meant Jon Danks starting Game 1 in Tampa. It would have been a much different series. Judging by their performances the Sox may still have lost, as Floyd and Vasquez would have gone to the mound at least once. Instead, Chicago had to send middle-of-the-rotation starters to the mound and found themselves in an 0-2 hole. Tampa Bay has to be a little worried by Garza’s outing against Chicago. Right now, Boston’s front 3 is better than Tampa’s front 3. Garza needs to do better against the Red Sox. They won’t win unless he picks it up.
2nd issue) The NLCS
NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies. Most experts predict an LA win in 7. Here’s the problem: you have 2 hot teams colliding in the playoffs. Usually when experts predict a series to go the distance it’s because the teams are evenly matched. That’s certainly the case here. The Phillies have a slightly better offense, mainly because they have more power. LA has slightly better pitching; the Phils get the edge in the bullpen but LA has a deeper starting rotation. And, just to make things more chaotic, the Dodgers swept the Phillies in LA and the Phillies swept the Dodgers in Philadelphia, both series occuring in August.
This is a different Dodgers team with Rafael Furcal in the lineup. He’s LA’s answer to Jimmy Rollins, just as the Phillies answer Manny Ramirez with Ryan Howard. Without Furcal, Philadelphia would have the clear edge offensively. Why hasn’t he been mentioned along with Ramirez? Furcal’s been out since May with an injury, and he only recently returned. Before getting hurt the Dodgers shortstop was tearing the cover off the ball though, and it seems he’s returned 100% healthy. These are the 2 players to watch in the Dodgers lineup: as they go, so goes the offense.
In contrast, one has to keep an eye on Phillies pitchers Brett Myers and Joe Blanton. If Myers is his 2nd half self, after the stint in the minors, the Phillies have every chance of winning this series. Myers was phenomenal during the stretch from August to early September, posting a sub-2.00 ERA with 9 wins, as good as C. C. Sabathia. Blanton was great for the team in Game 4 of the NLDS, giving up only 1 run in 6 strong innings. If he continues that form, the Phillies throw 4 great starters at the Dodgers, not 3.
My incredibly biased prediction: Phillies in 6. Homefield advantage give the Phillies an early lead in the series, and they take 1 game at LA before returning home for Game 6.
3rd Issue) The ALCS
Boy does Boston look tough now, but I think that’s because everyone still underestimates this Tampa team. Everyone in baseball knows the Red Sox, what they’re capable of, but more importantly, their weaknesses. And just looking at the numbers, Tampa Bay has an advantage in starting pitching. James Shields is the most underrated number 2 in the American League, and his statline compares very favorably with Daisuke Matsuzaka. Yes, Dice-K has more wins and a lower ERA. That’s not how you compare pitchers. The 2 most important stats are WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched) and the K/BB ration (Strikeout/Walk ration). Wins are really a function of the team, while ERA can fluctuate. Dice-K’s WHIP is 1.32, good for a number 3 but usually translating to an ERA of about 4 (his ERA is low because he’s only given up 12 HR). Shields’ WHIP is 1.15, a number usually seen for aces. The K/BB ratio is also 4:1 for Shields and 1.64/1 for Dice-K. Tampa has the edge in Game 1, and Scott Kazmir is a match for any pitcher the Red Sox can throw up there. Tampa also has a good number 4 in Andy Sonnanstine, while the Sox will have to counter with Wakefield, who pitched poorly down the stretch. That’s Game 1 and 4 edge for Tampa, who has home field advantage, and a draw in Game 2 with Kazmir.
Boston has a better bullpen, mainly because of Jonathan Papelbon (Tampa’s closer, Troy Percival, has pitched well but is hurt; they’ve had to improvise). You have to give the Sox the edge here, though it’s not as big as it might appear on paper. The Rays’ bullpen has been lights out in general, something they demonstrated against the White Sox. The back end is nothing to laugh at, with numbers every bit as good as Boston’s. Overall then, the Rays have a slight edge in pitching.
Offensively it’s not much of a debate. Tampa’s offense is good, centered around Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria, who bat behind Akinori Iwamura and BJ Upton. Dioner Navarro is probably the best hitting catcher still playing in October. But it’s simply outclassed by Boston. Ortiz is the premier lefty power hitter in the AL, and Kevin Youkilis is the best pure hitter still playing. Add Jason Bay, Dustin Pedroia, and J.D. Drew to the mix and the Red Sox simply have a better offense (in fact they scored about 70 more runs over the course of the season than the Rays).
So why then, with only a slight advantage to the Rays in pitching and a clear advantage offensively, am I holding off giving the definitive edge to the Sox? The answer is the road record. Both teams have losing records on the road and play much, much better at home. And who has home field advantage? The Tampa Bay Rays. Granted they’re the younger team, but they showed a lot of skill in their dismantling of the veteran White Sox. Simply put, this series is going to come down to the first team to win an away game. Since I think both will falter in their opponents’ respective homes, I predict Rays in 7.
1st Issue) New York learns the meaning of Dejavu…
When you’re wrong, you’re wrong. The Mets have been knocked out of the playoffs, on the final day of the season, by the Florida Marlins. Again. This followed a 7-10 performance to end the season, which included losing 6 out of 9 against the Cubs, Braves, and Marlins (ironically, they played best against the Cubs, going 2-2). And the main culprit? The bullpen, which blew 4 saves in the entire stretch. Again.
Now I could say my heart goes out to Muts Mets fans, but you’d all know I’d be lying, since I root for the Phillies. I could also go into a lengthy post about why the team fell short in September for the second year in a row, but Baseball commentators around the web are already dissecting the 2008 New York Mess. Suffice it to say, the Mets problems were twofold: First and foremost an overrated bullpen, and second, lack of depth. The Mets pen was a collection of lefty or righty specialists who had no business closing games, and no one stepped up when Billy Wagner went down with an injury. The team’s corner outfield situation was also a problem. LF Moises Alou went down for the season early, Ryan Church was lost for months with a concussion, Fernando Tatis played well but went down for the season in September, and the team was reduced to starting a Triple-A rookie who fortunately played his heart out for them. Pedro’s clearly not recovered from his injury, John Maine, who filled in admirably behind Santana, also was lost for late August and September, and the team was stuck starting both Santana and Oliver Perez on short rest in the final 2 games of the season. A combination of bad luck and bad decision making by the GM Omar Minaya doomed this team. And things won’t be much better next year.
But the Mets fall has overshadowed the play of the White Sox, who up until their series with the Twins looked set to win the AL Central. Then they were swept by Minnesota in the middle of a 2-8 stretch and found themselves a half game back; the team needed to beat the Tigers in Detroit to force a 1-game playoff for the division at the Twins stadium, which they won in a nailbiter of the phenomenal pitching of John Danks and a solo homerun by Gentleman Jim Thome. That means no rest between now and Wednesday, when playoffs begin. With the way the team’s played lately, I wouldn’t count on them. But speaking of playoffs…
2nd issue) The NL Playoffs
The Matchups: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs; Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies.
In the Dodgers/Cubs series, everyone’s going to favor Chicago, including myself, mainly because the team has no real weakness. The Dodgers offense is much improved but centered around Manny Ramirez; shut him down, and the Dodgers won’t score runs. Chicago has the best offense in the NL. LA’s pitching is very good, almost to the equal of Chicago’s, but the Cubs have a better rotation and will thrown Dempster, Zambrano, and Harden at the LA lineup. The Dodgers will counter with Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda, another good front 3. The difference between the two groups is Zambrano. He hasn’t pitched well since he’s thrown a no-hitter against Houston. If he falters, this series will go to Game 5 and it will be anyone’s game.
Chances are the Cubs will take Game 1. Ryan Dempster has been a monster on the mound in Wrigley, and he’s got the ball for Game 1 against Derek Lowe for LA. Lowe’s a big game pitcher, but he may find himself overmatched against the Cubs, who will send Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alphonso Soriano, Giovanny Soto, and Ryan Theriot to the plate. Barring an offensive meltdown of epic proportions, and we are talking about the Cubs here, I don’t see how they fail to get by the Dodgers. Chicago is the better team offensively and it’s a wash with pitching.
The difference is reversed in the other matchup; Brewers/Phillies. Here there isn’t much daylight between the 2 offenses, though Philly at least has a bona fide leadoff man and a better bottom order. However, outside of C.C. Sabathia the Brewers have inconsistent Dave Bush and mediocre Jeff Suppan, pitchers who do not match up well with Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, or Jamie Moyer. Although the Brew Crew is now starting Yovani Gallardo, the team’s number 2 behind Sheets before an injury in May cut his season short, you still have to give the Phillies the edge in Game 1 with Hamels on the mound. Myers was lights out in August and early September and could match Sabathia pitch for pitch, and Moyer has shown once again why he is a big game pitcher. But the real edge for the Phillies is their bullpen, one of the best and deepest in baseball. The Brewers have Solomon Torres, a good closer, but he’s outclassed by the Perfect in 2008 Brad Lidge. The Brew Crew has nobody in front of Torres either for middle relief, so if the starters get in trouble, Milwaukee’s in for a long game. Phillies in 4.
3rd issue) The AL Playoffs
The Matchups: Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays; Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox.
Chicago’s limped into the playoffs on the back of 2 wins, 1 a divisional playoff. Now they’ve got to send their pitchers to the mound on short rest against a rested Tampa Bay team. The Rays are new to the playoffs, having won a division title for the first time in their history, while the White Sox have plenty of veterans who have been in the playoffs, like Thome, or who have won it all, like Paul Konerko and Jon Garland. Experience matters, but the Rays have a better offense. One has to favor the Rays in this matchup based on that and the fact that Tampa Bay could relax last week. However, I think the newness of October will get to Tampa a bit, and it’ll be close, especially if Chicago’s starting pitching throws as well on the mound as they did against Detroit and Minnesota. Tampa Bay in 5.
The other series is a much easier call. For the record, I don’t hate the Red Sox. The team has never bothered me (though the fans continue to become progressively bigger irritants as time passes). In 2004 and 2007, the Angels were bounced from the playoffs from the Sox, but this is a different LA team. Unlike previous years, LA has a core which can pound the ball, when before they’d have to manufacture runs. The heart of LA’s lineup, Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, and Mark Teixeira matches up very well with David Ortiz, Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis. However, the bottom of the order clearly favors Boston with J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell. The Angels have a superior rotation however, and a lights out bullpen that is arguably the best in the AL (Anaheim gets the edge because Boston’s middle relief isn’t as good). Usually superior pitching wins over superior offense, and the Red Sox come into the series a little banged up with both Mike Lowell and ace Josh Beckett suffering from oblique strains (which can linger for a few weeks). If Beckett is still hurt, the Sox don’t have a prayer. Angels in 4.
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